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Passport #181865 · Aug 10, 2026 · 21:28 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC

@alejandro_XBT

Aug 10, 2026 · 21:28 UTC

For everyone calling this the bottom... At the very least, wait until the U.S.–Iran conflict is over before making that call. Imagine this drags on for another year. Does it really make sense to be calling a bottom now? You already know my view. I think Bitcoin is going much lower over the coming months.

🤖Ask the AI Analyst about this call →@alejandro_XBT's BTC record, on demand — every answer traceable to scored posts

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Commitment	mild_hedge
Duration	90 days · Long Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Bearish call: 'Bitcoin is going much lower over the coming months.' No specific price targets are provided. 'I think' softens the statement to a mild hedge.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC goes much lower. 'Over the coming months' is bound to the outcome. §3.2: 'coming months / next few months / in months' → 90 days.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$64,117
Target	—
Duration	90 days · Long Term

Scoring

This call is directional live — no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration source	explicit_text
Duration stated (days)	90
Duration used in scoring	90

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A
Merge source	post_only
Direction source	post_text
Target source	none
Commitment level	mild_hedge
Spot price at post	$64,117
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 58.84,
  "mfe": 221.52,
  "mqs": 0.284065,
  "ocs": 0.790127,
  "tif": 1,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-08-11 00:15:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.009131,
  "sigma_d": 0.02067788,
  "eval_end": "2026-08-11 05:15:00+00:00",
  "end_close": 64046.81,
  "magnitude": 0.284065,
  "max_close": 64155.01,
  "min_close": 63968,
  "eval_start": "2026-08-10 21:28:40+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "score_final": false,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "end_close_ts": "2026-08-11 05:15:00+00:00",
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 90,
  "mew_days_used": 90,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 0.334166,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.520831,
  "activation_price": 64117.16,
  "dir_target_score": null,
  "candles_evaluated": 32,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.010339,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "1w",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 1,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 1,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}