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Passport #163571 · Jul 23, 2026 · 14:11 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC

@alejandro_XBT

Jul 23, 2026 · 14:11 UTC

Here's my base case for the next 12–24 months: > Tech stocks fall around 60% from current levels. > Crypto gets crushed. I see Bitcoin somewhere between $16K–30K, Ethereum at $500–900, and altcoins... I'd rather not even talk about them. > Gold corrects, but remains one of the best places to hide. I don't expect it to fall much compared to other assets. > The U.S. dollar strengthens. King Dollar ($DXY) stays in control. > Oil keeps pushing higher until the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens.

🤖Ask the AI Analyst about this call →@alejandro_XBT's ETH record, on demand — every answer traceable to scored posts

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

ETH

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	ETH
Direction	Short
Commitment	declarative
Duration	549 days · Long Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Bearish base case with ETH explicitly predicted at $500-900 range over 12-24 months. Stated as base case with 'I see' framing — declarative in tone. Target range clearly extracted.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = ETH falls to $500–900. Same 'next 12–24 months' horizon applies to the entire base case; midpoint calculation identical to claim 0 → 549 days.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	ETH
Direction	Short
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$1,902
Target	$500 – $900
Duration	549 days · Long Term

Scoring

This call is directional live — no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration source	explicit_text
Duration stated (days)	549
Duration used in scoring	549

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A
Merge source	post_only
Direction source	post_text
Target source	post_text
Commitment level	declarative
Spot price at post	$1,902
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 4.98,
  "mfe": 27.27,
  "mqs": 0.648723,
  "ocs": 0.845579,
  "tif": 1,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-07-23 18:00:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.015339,
  "sigma_d": 0.02740528,
  "eval_end": "2026-07-23 19:15:00+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.648723,
  "max_close": 1903.93,
  "min_close": 1876.6,
  "eval_start": "2026-07-23 14:11:46+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "score_final": false,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 90,
  "mew_days_used": 549,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 1.04618,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.62741,
  "activation_price": 1902.28,
  "dir_target_score": 0.025622,
  "candles_evaluated": 21,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.013703,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 1,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 1,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}