Call Audit

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Passport #163570 · Jul 23, 2026 · 14:11 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC

@alejandro_XBT

Jul 23, 2026 · 14:11 UTC

Here's my base case for the next 12–24 months: > Tech stocks fall around 60% from current levels. > Crypto gets crushed. I see Bitcoin somewhere between $16K–30K, Ethereum at $500–900, and altcoins... I'd rather not even talk about them. > Gold corrects, but remains one of the best places to hide. I don't expect it to fall much compared to other assets. > The U.S. dollar strengthens. King Dollar ($DXY) stays in control. > Oil keeps pushing higher until the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens.

🤖Ask the AI Analyst about this call →@alejandro_XBT's BTC record, on demand — every answer traceable to scored posts

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Commitment	declarative
Duration	549 days · Long Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Bearish base case for crypto over 12-24 months with BTC target range of $16K-$30K. 'I see Bitcoin somewhere between' is a direct predictive statement, treated as declarative within a base case framing.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC falls to $16K–30K. 'Next 12–24 months' is bound to the outcome; midpoint is 18 months = ~547 days. D = 2026-07-23; 24 months out = 2028-07-23 = 731 days, 12 months = 2027-07-23 = 365 days; midpoint = (365+731)/2 ≈ 548 days → 549.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$65,050
Target	$16,000 – $30,000
Duration	549 days · Long Term

Scoring

This call is directional live — no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration source	explicit_text
Duration stated (days)	549
Duration used in scoring	549

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A
Merge source	post_only
Direction source	post_text
Target source	post_text
Commitment level	declarative
Spot price at post	$65,050
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 166.25,
  "mfe": 399.99,
  "mqs": 0.444264,
  "ocs": 0.706396,
  "tif": 1,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-07-23 18:00:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.00658,
  "sigma_d": 0.02093399,
  "eval_end": "2026-07-23 19:15:00+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.444264,
  "max_close": 65150.1,
  "min_close": 64681.27,
  "eval_start": "2026-07-23 14:11:46+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "score_final": false,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 90,
  "mew_days_used": 549,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 0.587462,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.53931,
  "activation_price": 65049.99,
  "dir_target_score": 0.01052,
  "candles_evaluated": 21,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.010467,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 1,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 1,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}