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Call Audit
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Passport #161585 · Jul 21, 2026 · 17:41 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC
We may chop around inside this red box for a while.
Short-term timing is almost impossible.
But I don't think this bear market ends without Bitcoin at least testing $30K https://t.co/FZn2brMZny
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 180 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Bearish call with explicit target of $30K testing. 'I don't think this bear market ends without...testing $30K' is a mild hedge — expressing belief but not fully declarative. Direction is clearly down given bear market framing and lower price target.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC tests $30K. No explicit horizon attached to the outcome. 'Bear market ends' is earnest macro framing (bear market, cycle-level language) → Signal H base 120.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $66,501 |
| Target | $30,000 – $30,000 |
| Duration | 180 days · Long Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 180 |
| Duration used in scoring | 180 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | post_text |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $66,501 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 5.44,
"mfe": 447.92,
"mqs": 0.473014,
"ocs": 0.988,
"tif": 1,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-21 18:00:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.012587,
"sigma_d": 0.02102958,
"eval_end": "2026-07-21 19:15:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.473014,
"max_close": 66500.55,
"min_close": 66207.95,
"eval_start": "2026-07-21 17:41:57+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 180,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.640582,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.6184,
"activation_price": 66500.55,
"dir_target_score": 0.008016,
"candles_evaluated": 7,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.010515,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
"tif_total_aggregated": 1,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 1,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}