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Passport #143345 · Jul 1, 2026 · 14:54 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
AL@alejandro_XBT
Jul 1, 2026 · 14:54 UTC
I strongly believe we’ll see 30K within the next 3–4 months.
After that, I expect Q1 2027 to bring a sharp relief rally.
That’s when most people will start calling for new all-time highs again.
bitcoin:native
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | declarative |
| Duration | 122 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
'Strongly believe we'll see 30K' is a declarative down call from current levels. Target is 30K. The Q1 2027 relief rally has no numeric target and is a secondary claim excluded per Stage 2.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC drops to 30K. 'Within the next 3–4 months' is bound to the outcome; midpoint of 90 and 135 = round((90+135)/2) = 113, but the phrase maps directly to §3.2 'next 3–6 months' → 135 is for 3–6 months; '3–4 months' is not in the table so compute: D = 2026-07-01, 3 months → Oct 01 = 92 days, 4 months → Nov 01 = 123 days, midpoint = round((92+123)/2) = 108. Actually using the table: '3–4 months' → midpoint of 90 (3 months) and 120 (4 months) = 105. Re-checking: §3.2 gives 'coming month/next month' = 30, 'couple of months/few months' = 60, 'coming months/next few months' = 90, 'next 3–6 months' = 135. '3–4 months' is not listed; computing directly: D = 2026-07-01; +3 months = 2026-10-01 (92 days); +4 months = 2026-11-01 (123 days); midpoint = round((92+123)/2) = 108 days.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $59,542 |
| Target | $30,000 – $30,000 |
| Duration | 122 days · Long Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | explicit_text |
| Duration stated (days) | 122 |
| Duration used in scoring | 122 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A |
| Merge source | post_only |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | post_text |
| Commitment level | declarative |
| Spot price at post | $59,542 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 3919.99,
"mfe": 121.99,
"mqs": 0.172658,
"ocs": 0.030181,
"tif": 0,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 15:00:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.004651,
"sigma_d": 0.02161904,
"eval_end": "2026-07-05 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.172658,
"max_close": 63439.87,
"min_close": 59542,
"eval_start": "2026-07-01 14:54:29+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 122,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.189537,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.051873,
"activation_price": 59542,
"dir_target_score": 0,
"candles_evaluated": 347,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.01081,
"scoring_candle_tf": "2w",
"tif_total_aggregated": 2,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 2,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 2
}