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Passport #141173 · Jun 26, 2026 · 15:49 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
CR@CryptoMichNL
Jun 26, 2026 · 15:49 UTC
$STRC is bouncing back to $76.
$MSTR is bouncing.
#Bitcoin bouncing to $62,000+ would mean another close above the 200-Week MA and a reason to expect no further downside momentum.
Everyone is short anyways, nobody is expecting a bounce, so if it happens, it can go fast.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Conditional |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 14 days · Short Term |
| Trigger | $62,000 |
| Trigger Operator | Break Below |
AI Reasoning
62000 is the trigger — BTC must bounce to that level to confirm a close above the 200-Week MA, which would imply no further downside (bullish bias). No numeric target stated for after the trigger fires. Single claim.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC bounces to $62,000+ (no further downside). Per §0.5, the bounce to $62k is the trigger; the outcome is 'no further downside momentum.' No explicit horizon on the outcome. 'Bounce' register and 'can go fast' urgency cues → Signal B base 14.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
| Activation price | $62,583 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 14 days · Short Term |
| Trigger level | $62,000 |
| Trigger operator | Break Below |
| Conditional operator | Category B — Break/Pump/Close Above |
| Trigger hit | Yes |
| Trigger time | Jul 4, 2026 · 00:00 UTC |
Scoring
0.49composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.48 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.78 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.60 |
| Magnitude | 0.48 |
| Max Favorable Move | +1.4% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −0.4% |
| Candles evaluated | 119 · 8h |
| Eval window | Jul 4, 2026 · 00:00 UTC → Jul 5, 2026 · 05:30 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | ai_inferred |
| Duration stated (days) | 14 |
| Duration used in scoring | 14 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3B |
| Merge source | post_only |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $60,328 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 255.02,
"mfe": 878.73,
"mqs": 0.475418,
"ocs": 0.775065,
"tif": 0.6,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-04 19:45:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.09381,
"sigma_d": 0.02399145,
"eval_end": "2026-07-05 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.475418,
"max_close": 63439.87,
"min_close": 62422,
"eval_start": "2026-07-04 00:00:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": 62583.26,
"trigger_ts": "2026-07-04 00:00:00+00:00",
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": true,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 14,
"mew_days_used": 14,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.645153,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.486073,
"activation_price": 62583.26,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 119,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.021764,
"scoring_candle_tf": "8h",
"tif_total_aggregated": 5,
"trigger_candle_index": 22,
"aggregated_candles_count": 5,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 3,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 5
}