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Passport #140083 · Jun 24, 2026 · 20:40 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
CR@CryptoMichNL
Jun 24, 2026 · 20:40 UTC
Clear test of the lows, all correlated with $STRC on #Bitcoin.
It's bouncing back up, but all depending on how Strategy is going to open tomorrow whether or not this can dump further.
It's one of the scenarios, and I've not sold any of my #Altcoins as many of them have been more resilient than Bitcoin.
Some are up 5-9% vs Bitcoin intraday.
For sure, this is weakness in the markets, but I don't expect Strategy to go down. There's no reason for that to happen.
This can easily bounce back fast to $64,000+ in the coming days if STRC bounces as literally everyone and his mom is currently net short on Bitcoin.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Conditional |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 5 days · Short Term |
| Trigger | $60,000 |
| Trigger Operator | Hold Above |
AI Reasoning
Conditional claim: BTC will bounce to $64,000+ if STRC bounces. The trigger is STRC bouncing — not a numeric BTC price level — so trigger is null. Target is $64,000. Hedged with 'can easily' language.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC bounces to $64,000+. 'In the coming days' is bound to the outcome (not the STRC trigger), mapping to 5 days per §3.2.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
Chart shows BTC/USDT on 1D timeframe, matches Stage 3 asset. A clearly drawn green support zone sits at approximately 60,000, just below current price of 60,777.11. This is consistent with a hold/defend support trigger structure for the bounce-to-64k thesis. However, the post's actual trigger is 'if STRC bounces' (not a BTC price level), so the chart-derived trigger may not faithfully represent the post's intent — hence NOT PASS on validation. Still, 60k is the visually identified support being defended.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
| Activation price | $59,794 |
| Target | $64,000 – $64,000 |
| Duration | 5 days · Short Term |
| Trigger level | $60,000 |
| Trigger operator | Hold Above |
| Conditional operator | Category A — Hold/Defend/Maintain/Support |
| Trigger hit | Yes |
| Trigger time | Jun 26, 2026 · 00:00 UTC |
Scoring
0.45composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.52 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.42 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.64 |
| Magnitude | 0.52 |
| Max Favorable Move | +1.9% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −2.7% |
| Candles evaluated | 481 · 2h |
| Eval window | Jun 26, 2026 · 00:00 UTC → Jul 1, 2026 · 00:00 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | explicit_text |
| Duration stated (days) | 5 |
| Duration used in scoring | 5 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3B->4B_modeA |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | post_text |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $60,884 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
gate_3_confidence: chart_trigger_confidence
Merge Flags
trigger_from_chart: true
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 1593,
"mfe": 1147.17,
"mqs": 0.52254,
"ocs": 0.418649,
"tif": 0.639344,
"mfe_ts": "2026-06-27 15:45:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.211861,
"sigma_d": 0.02016513,
"eval_end": "2026-07-01 00:00:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.52254,
"max_close": 60877.5,
"min_close": 58316,
"eval_start": "2026-06-26 00:00:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": 59794,
"trigger_ts": "2026-06-26 00:00:00+00:00",
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": true,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 14,
"mew_days_used": 5,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.739275,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.448098,
"activation_price": 59794,
"dir_target_score": 0.257608,
"candles_evaluated": 481,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.025952,
"scoring_candle_tf": "2h",
"tif_total_aggregated": 61,
"trigger_candle_index": 13,
"aggregated_candles_count": 61,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 39,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 61
} 