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Passport #78089 ยท May 3, 2026 ยท 19:59 UTC ยท scored as of Oct 6, 2026 ยท 14:32 UTC

CO
@ColinTcrypto
May 3, 2026 ยท 19:59 UTC
๐•
Bitcoin is nearing an interesting spot on the chart. It's the intersection of 2 trend lines and one horizontal resistance level. As such, I give $BTC a 50% chance of finding a local top around this intersection spot, but if it happens to break above the channel, then it probably moves a good deal higher, perhaps finding a local top around the $84k-$86k zone (where the most immediate and signficant horizontal resistance can be found from the previous consolidation range). As such, I'm spacing out my next profit taking (10% of my portfolio) in two traunches-- half of my sells just under $80k and the other half around $84k. I am obviously still of the belief that this is a relief rally and we'll see a revisit of $60k's range (or lower) later this year. I notice in the comments section of my recent posts that quite a few of you disagree that we are in a relief rally. These individuals strongly believe we are in a bull run, and that "this time is different" for all sorts of various reasons and charts. I disagree, but that's ok and I'm not going to attack anybody for differing views (after all, there's always a chance I am wrong, as any analyst could be with any market view at any time). So, just know that I respect your choice to disagree with me, even if we don't see eye to eye. All I ask is that you keep is civil in the discussion. And at least I have the cajones to speak my mind. Whether I end up being right or wrong, that alone should be worth something.
๐Ÿค–Ask the AI Analyst about this call โ†’@ColinTcrypto's BTC record, on demand โ€” every answer traceable to scored posts

Stage 1 ยท Text-Only Asset Extraction

AssetBTC

Stage 2 ยท Type Classification

TypeDirectional
ActivationActive Immediately

Stage 3 ยท Text-Only Extraction

AssetBTC
DirectionShort
Commitmentmild_hedge
Duration242 days ยท Long Term
Triggerโ€”
Trigger Operatorโ€”

AI Reasoning

The directional down claim is the forecaster's belief this is a relief rally and BTC will revisit the $60k range or lower later this year. Target captured as the $60k range ($60k-$69,999). The $84k-$86k zone is part of the conditional claim, not this directional call. 'Of the belief' qualifies as mild_hedge.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC revisits $60k range or lower. 'Later this year' is bound to the outcome (not a trigger). D = 2026-05-03; 'this year' โ†’ Dec 31, 2026; 242 days.

Stage 4 ยท Chart-Only Extraction

Gate 1: BTC/USD on 1D timeframe from Coinbase. Gate 2: Asset matches Stage 3 BTC. Gate 3: Horizontal blue resistance line with annotation pointing to intersection of resistance and trend lines serves as a clear trigger structure. Gate 4: UP direction consistent with break above resistance setup. Current price read from price badge at 78,791.82. Trigger identified at the blue horizontal resistance line at ~$81,500, which sits between current price and the target zone.

Stage 5 ยท Final Merged Passport

AssetBTC
DirectionShort
ActivationActive Immediately
Activation price$78,760
Target$60,000 โ€“ $69,999
Duration242 days ยท Long Term

Scoring

This call is directional live โ€” no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration sourceexplicit_text
Duration stated (days)242
Duration used in scoring242

Pipeline

Pipeline path3AA->4A
Merge sourcemerged
Direction sourcepost_text
Target sourcepost_text
Commitment levelmild_hedge
Spot price at post$78,760
Stage 0 passedYes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved โ€” no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 4089.68,
  "mfe": 20960.13,
  "mqs": 0.716613,
  "ocs": 0.836738,
  "tif": 0.666667,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.404416,
  "sigma_d": 0.02766048,
  "eval_end": "2026-07-04 05:30:00+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.716613,
  "max_close": 82684.01,
  "min_close": 58169.81,
  "eval_start": "2026-05-03 19:59:44+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 90,
  "mew_days_used": 242,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 1.260941,
  "target_hit_ts": "2026-06-02 07:00:00+00:00",
  "accuracy_score": 0.656108,
  "activation_price": 78760.32,
  "dir_target_score": 1,
  "candles_evaluated": 5895,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.211053,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 3,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 3,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 2,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 3
}