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Passport #78089 ยท May 3, 2026 ยท 19:59 UTC ยท scored as of Oct 6, 2026 ยท 14:32 UTC
CO@ColinTcrypto
May 3, 2026 ยท 19:59 UTC
๐ Bitcoin is nearing an interesting spot on the chart.
It's the intersection of 2 trend lines and one horizontal resistance level.
As such, I give $BTC a 50% chance of finding a local top around this intersection spot, but if it happens to break above the channel, then it probably moves a good deal higher, perhaps finding a local top around the $84k-$86k zone (where the most immediate and signficant horizontal resistance can be found from the previous consolidation range).
As such, I'm spacing out my next profit taking (10% of my portfolio) in two traunches-- half of my sells just under $80k and the other half around $84k. I am obviously still of the belief that this is a relief rally and we'll see a revisit of $60k's range (or lower) later this year.
I notice in the comments section of my recent posts that quite a few of you disagree that we are in a relief rally. These individuals strongly believe we are in a bull run, and that "this time is different" for all sorts of various reasons and charts. I disagree, but that's ok and I'm not going to attack anybody for differing views (after all, there's always a chance I am wrong, as any analyst could be with any market view at any time).
So, just know that I respect your choice to disagree with me, even if we don't see eye to eye. All I ask is that you keep is civil in the discussion. And at least I have the cajones to speak my mind. Whether I end up being right or wrong, that alone should be worth something.
๐คAsk the AI Analyst about this call โ@ColinTcrypto's BTC record, on demand โ every answer traceable to scored postsStage 1 ยท Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 ยท Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 ยท Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 242 days ยท Long Term |
| Trigger | โ |
| Trigger Operator | โ |
AI Reasoning
The directional down claim is the forecaster's belief this is a relief rally and BTC will revisit the $60k range or lower later this year. Target captured as the $60k range ($60k-$69,999). The $84k-$86k zone is part of the conditional claim, not this directional call. 'Of the belief' qualifies as mild_hedge.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC revisits $60k range or lower. 'Later this year' is bound to the outcome (not a trigger). D = 2026-05-03; 'this year' โ Dec 31, 2026; 242 days.
Stage 4 ยท Chart-Only Extraction
Gate 1: BTC/USD on 1D timeframe from Coinbase. Gate 2: Asset matches Stage 3 BTC. Gate 3: Horizontal blue resistance line with annotation pointing to intersection of resistance and trend lines serves as a clear trigger structure. Gate 4: UP direction consistent with break above resistance setup. Current price read from price badge at 78,791.82. Trigger identified at the blue horizontal resistance line at ~$81,500, which sits between current price and the target zone.
Stage 5 ยท Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $78,760 |
| Target | $60,000 โ $69,999 |
| Duration | 242 days ยท Long Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live โ no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | explicit_text |
| Duration stated (days) | 242 |
| Duration used in scoring | 242 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3AA->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | post_text |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $78,760 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved โ no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 4089.68,
"mfe": 20960.13,
"mqs": 0.716613,
"ocs": 0.836738,
"tif": 0.666667,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.404416,
"sigma_d": 0.02766048,
"eval_end": "2026-07-04 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.716613,
"max_close": 82684.01,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-05-03 19:59:44+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 242,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.260941,
"target_hit_ts": "2026-06-02 07:00:00+00:00",
"accuracy_score": 0.656108,
"activation_price": 78760.32,
"dir_target_score": 1,
"candles_evaluated": 5895,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.211053,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
"tif_total_aggregated": 3,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 3,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 2,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 3
}