Call Audit

Every scored call is fully auditable

Passport #175070 · Aug 3, 2026 · 22:05 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC

@ColinTcrypto

Aug 3, 2026 · 22:05 UTC

$BTC is currently $63,549 $ETH is currently $1,862 If $BTC finds a cycle low at $50k that would be a 21% drop from where it is today. Imo, $50k would actually be quite bullishly high for a bear market bottom, because it would only be a 60% drop from the highs. That would be great performance for a bear market. $ETH, being beta to BTC, would likely drop more than BTC, so I'd assume it would drop 30% or greater. That would put it closer to $1,300 or lower. ETH is pushing into resistance currently, so it seems likely we see lower prices. Just some napkin math.

🤖Ask the AI Analyst about this call →@ColinTcrypto's ETH record, on demand — every answer traceable to scored posts

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

ETH

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	ETH
Direction	Short
Commitment	mild_hedge
Duration	30 days · Medium Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Bearish call on ETH with 'seems likely we see lower prices' and 'would drop 30% or greater' pointing to $1,300 or lower. Language like 'likely', 'assume', and 'seems likely' = mild hedge. $1,300 is the explicit target estimate in the down direction.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = ETH drops to ~$1,300 or lower. No outcome-anchored horizon phrase present. No bounce, urgency, or macro signal fires for this leg — DEFAULT 30.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	ETH
Direction	Short
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$1,859
Target	$1,300 – $1,300
Duration	30 days · Medium Term

Scoring

This call is directional live — no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration source	chart_timeframe
Duration stated (days)	30
Duration used in scoring	30

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A->4A
Merge source	merged
Direction source	post_text
Target source	post_text
Commitment level	mild_hedge
Spot price at post	$1,859
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 15.24,
  "mfe": 11.09,
  "mqs": 0.412792,
  "ocs": 0.421191,
  "tif": 0,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-08-04 00:45:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.027294,
  "sigma_d": 0.02240549,
  "eval_end": "2026-08-04 05:15:00+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.412792,
  "max_close": 1871.09,
  "min_close": 1851.3,
  "eval_start": "2026-08-03 22:05:51+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "score_final": false,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 30,
  "mew_days_used": 30,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 0.532375,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.215319,
  "activation_price": 1859.47,
  "dir_target_score": 0.014603,
  "candles_evaluated": 29,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.011203,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "1d",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 2,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 2,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 2
}