Call Audit

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Passport #161521 · Jul 21, 2026 · 10:07 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC

@ColinTcrypto

Jul 21, 2026 · 10:07 UTC

Noticing people getting cocky on the timeline about the $BTC bottom being in. On a measly $5k rally or whatever. That’s not a good sign for bulls. Optimism has accompanied every relief rally to date. Obviously one of them will be the true bottom, but is optimism and cockiness the proper sentiment for a bottom? Probably not. Will the price go a bit higher before dropping again? Probably. Remember: I have been entirely open to the idea that BTC revisits the 200-day MA. That’s around $70k-$72k. BTC has retested this twice in prior bear markets as well. However, I give low odds to the bottom being in. Notice I didn’t say impossible. But low odds. But those coming at me saying “I had better adjust my strategy” will likely disappear in a few months at a bare minimum the lows get swept again around Sept-Nov.

🤖Ask the AI Analyst about this call →@ColinTcrypto's BTC record, on demand — every answer traceable to scored posts

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Long
Commitment	mild_hedge
Duration	14 days · Short Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Per Stage 2, only the first leg (short-term up move) is scored. Forecaster says price will 'probably' go 'a bit higher before dropping again' — direction up with mild_hedge commitment. No numeric target for the up move is given (the 70k-72k reference is the downside 200-day MA area, opposite direction, not extracted). Targets null.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC goes a bit higher before dropping again. No explicit horizon is attached to the upward leg. The 'a bit higher' phrasing describes a short-term relief rally before a reversal, matching Signal B (short-term bounce/relief) at base 14.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Long
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$66,360
Target	—
Duration	14 days · Short Term

Scoring

0.23composite Call Rank Score

Move Score (MQS)	0.67
Path Score (OCS)	0.13
Time Score (TIF)	0.05
Magnitude	0.67
Max Favorable Move	+0.9%
Max Unfavorable Move	−6.2%
Candles evaluated	1344 · 8h
Eval window	Jul 21, 2026 · 10:07 UTC → Aug 4, 2026 · 10:07 UTC

Duration Resolution

Duration source	ai_inferred
Duration stated (days)	14
Duration used in scoring	14

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A
Merge source	post_only
Direction source	post_text
Target source	none
Commitment level	mild_hedge
Spot price at post	$66,360
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 4085.01,
  "mfe": 596.14,
  "mqs": 0.670274,
  "ocs": 0.127349,
  "tif": 0.046512,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-07-21 14:15:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.060124,
  "sigma_d": 0.01619376,
  "eval_end": "2026-08-04 10:07:04+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.670274,
  "max_close": 66944.4,
  "min_close": 62340.01,
  "eval_start": "2026-07-21 10:07:04+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "score_final": true,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 14,
  "mew_days_used": 14,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 1.109492,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.226065,
  "activation_price": 66360.01,
  "dir_target_score": null,
  "candles_evaluated": 1344,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.008097,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "8h",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 43,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 43,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 2,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 43
}