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Passport #149295 · Jul 10, 2026 · 18:42 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
VE@vegetacrypto1
Jul 10, 2026 · 18:42 UTC
bitcoin:native , ppl about to call sub 50k https://t.co/aQRk3jSlVU
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | heavy_hedge |
| Duration | 3 days · Short Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Post suggests people will start calling for sub-50k BTC, implying a bearish lean. However, the phrasing is indirect — the author is commenting on what others will say rather than making a firm personal prediction, so direction validation does not pass cleanly. No explicit target from the author (sub-50k is what 'ppl' will call, not the author's stated destination).
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC declines toward sub-50k. No outcome-anchored horizon phrase present. No bounce, urgency, or macro signal fires → DEFAULT 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $63,884 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 3 days · Short Term |
Scoring
0.54composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.60 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.77 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.34 |
| Magnitude | 0.60 |
| Max Favorable Move | +3.2% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −1.0% |
| Candles evaluated | 288 · 1h |
| Eval window | Jul 10, 2026 · 18:42 UTC → Jul 13, 2026 · 18:42 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 3 |
| Duration used in scoring | 3 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | heavy_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $63,884 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
gate_3_confidence: post_direction_confidence
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 620.12,
"mfe": 2059.02,
"mqs": 0.595493,
"ocs": 0.768538,
"tif": 0.342466,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-13 18:30:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.435411,
"sigma_d": 0.02058897,
"eval_end": "2026-07-13 18:42:15+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.595493,
"max_close": 64463.99,
"min_close": 61904.99,
"eval_start": "2026-07-10 18:42:15+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": true,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 14,
"mew_days_used": 3,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.905086,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.535477,
"activation_price": 63883.99,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 288,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.035611,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1h",
"tif_total_aggregated": 73,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 73,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 25,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 73
} 