Call Audit

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Passport #81351 · May 21, 2026 · 07:18 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC

@thescalpingpro

May 21, 2026 · 07:18 UTC

#Bitcoin - dead cat bounce before more downside? BTC is trading at a critical zone, the $77,000 is a strong support/ resistance zone since March 2025. Two possible scenarios : 1) BTC bounces from this level and pushes higher toward the mid-range before another drop. (Possible, but not my preferred scenario. Bear markets usually don’t make things easy and rarely give trapped traders a clean exit.) 2) BTC loses this support and continues lower, forming a new bottom before the next real bull cycle starts. (Most likely to play out.)

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Conditional
Activation	Active at Trigger

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Commitment	mild_hedge
Duration	60 days · Medium Term
Trigger	$77,000
Trigger Operator	Break Below

AI Reasoning

Claim 2: BTC loses $77k support and continues lower to form a new bottom. Trigger is 77000 (lose/break below). No numeric target given for the new bottom. Mild hedge as forecaster calls this 'most likely'.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC loses support, continues lower to form a new bottom. 'New bottom before the next real bull cycle' pairs bottom-call language with macro/cycle framing → Signal B2, ↑ to 60 for macro/cycle framing.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Activation	Active at Trigger
Activation price	$74,449
Target	—
Duration	60 days · Medium Term
Trigger level	$77,000
Trigger operator	Break Below
Conditional operator	Category B — Break/Dump/Lose/Close Below
Trigger hit	Yes
Trigger time	May 28, 2026 · 00:00 UTC

Scoring

This call is conditional live — no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration source	ai_inferred
Duration stated (days)	60
Duration used in scoring	60

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3B->4B_modeB
Merge source	merged
Direction source	post_text
Target source	none
Commitment level	mild_hedge
Spot price at post	$77,612
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 141.47,
  "mfe": 16649.11,
  "mqs": 0.857071,
  "ocs": 0.991574,
  "tif": 0.928571,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.619289,
  "sigma_d": 0.0196992,
  "eval_end": "2026-07-04 05:30:00+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.857071,
  "max_close": 74573.76,
  "min_close": 58169.81,
  "eval_start": "2026-05-28 00:00:00+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": 74449.3,
  "trigger_ts": "2026-05-28 00:00:00+00:00",
  "active_mode": false,
  "trigger_hit": true,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 60,
  "mew_days_used": 60,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 1.945405,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.849126,
  "activation_price": 74449.3,
  "dir_target_score": null,
  "candles_evaluated": 3575,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.114953,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "3d",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 14,
  "trigger_candle_index": 2,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 14,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 13,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 14
}