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Passport #81351 · May 21, 2026 · 07:18 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
#Bitcoin - dead cat bounce before more downside?
BTC is trading at a critical zone, the $77,000 is a strong support/ resistance zone since March 2025.
Two possible scenarios :
1) BTC bounces from this level and pushes higher toward the mid-range before another drop.
(Possible, but not my preferred scenario. Bear markets usually don’t make things easy and rarely give trapped traders a clean exit.)
2) BTC loses this support and continues lower, forming a new bottom before the next real bull cycle starts.
(Most likely to play out.)
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Conditional |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 60 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | $77,000 |
| Trigger Operator | Break Below |
AI Reasoning
Claim 2: BTC loses $77k support and continues lower to form a new bottom. Trigger is 77000 (lose/break below). No numeric target given for the new bottom. Mild hedge as forecaster calls this 'most likely'.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC loses support, continues lower to form a new bottom. 'New bottom before the next real bull cycle' pairs bottom-call language with macro/cycle framing → Signal B2, ↑ to 60 for macro/cycle framing.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
| Activation price | $74,449 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 60 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger level | $77,000 |
| Trigger operator | Break Below |
| Conditional operator | Category B — Break/Dump/Lose/Close Below |
| Trigger hit | Yes |
| Trigger time | May 28, 2026 · 00:00 UTC |
Scoring
0.86composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.86 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.99 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.95 |
| Magnitude | 0.86 |
| Max Favorable Move | +22.4% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −0.2% |
| Candles evaluated | 5761 · 3d |
| Eval window | May 28, 2026 · 00:00 UTC → Jul 27, 2026 · 00:00 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | ai_inferred |
| Duration stated (days) | 60 |
| Duration used in scoring | 60 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3B->4B_modeB |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $77,612 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 141.47,
"mfe": 16649.11,
"mqs": 0.857071,
"ocs": 0.991574,
"tif": 0.952381,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.619289,
"sigma_d": 0.0196992,
"eval_end": "2026-07-27 00:00:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.857071,
"max_close": 74573.76,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-05-28 00:00:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": 74449.3,
"trigger_ts": "2026-05-28 00:00:00+00:00",
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": true,
"trigger_hit": true,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 60,
"mew_days_used": 60,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.945405,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.855079,
"activation_price": 74449.3,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 5761,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.114953,
"scoring_candle_tf": "3d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 21,
"trigger_candle_index": 2,
"aggregated_candles_count": 21,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 20,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 21
}