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Passport #81350 · May 21, 2026 · 07:18 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
TH@thescalpingpro
May 21, 2026 · 07:18 UTC
#Bitcoin - dead cat bounce before more downside?
BTC is trading at a critical zone, the $77,000 is a strong support/ resistance zone since March 2025.
Two possible scenarios :
1) BTC bounces from this level and pushes higher toward the mid-range before another drop.
(Possible, but not my preferred scenario. Bear markets usually don’t make things easy and rarely give trapped traders a clean exit.)
2) BTC loses this support and continues lower, forming a new bottom before the next real bull cycle starts.
(Most likely to play out.)
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Conditional |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | heavy_hedge |
| Duration | 14 days · Short Term |
| Trigger | $77,000 |
| Trigger Operator | Hits / Retest |
AI Reasoning
Claim 1: BTC bounces from $77k support and pushes higher toward mid-range. Trigger is $77k bounce, direction up. 'Mid-range' is not a specific numeric target. Heavy hedge as forecaster says it's not their preferred scenario.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC bounces higher toward mid-range. No explicit horizon attached to the outcome. 'Dead cat bounce' and 'bounces from this level and pushes higher' is bounce/relief register → Signal B base 14.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
| Activation price | $77,616 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 14 days · Short Term |
| Trigger level | $77,000 |
| Trigger operator | Hits / Retest |
| Conditional operator | Category E — Retest and continuation |
| Trigger hit | Yes |
| Trigger time | May 22, 2026 · 00:00 UTC |
Scoring
0.07composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.18 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.03 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.02 |
| Magnitude | 0.18 |
| Max Favorable Move | +0.6% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −20.9% |
| Candles evaluated | 1345 · 8h |
| Eval window | May 22, 2026 · 00:00 UTC → Jun 5, 2026 · 00:00 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | ai_inferred |
| Duration stated (days) | 14 |
| Duration used in scoring | 14 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3B->4B_modeB |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | heavy_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $77,612 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 16231.96,
"mfe": 464.48,
"mqs": 0.176532,
"ocs": 0.027819,
"tif": 0.023256,
"mfe_ts": "2026-05-26 14:30:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.040079,
"sigma_d": 0.01435905,
"eval_end": "2026-06-05 00:00:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.176532,
"max_close": 77958.4,
"min_close": 62178.1,
"eval_start": "2026-05-22 00:00:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": 77615.52,
"trigger_ts": "2026-05-22 00:00:00+00:00",
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": true,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 14,
"mew_days_used": 14,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.19423,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.066921,
"activation_price": 77615.52,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 1345,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.030811,
"scoring_candle_tf": "8h",
"tif_total_aggregated": 43,
"trigger_candle_index": 2,
"aggregated_candles_count": 43,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 43
} 