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Passport #80982 · May 19, 2026 · 07:57 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
TH@thescalpingpro
May 19, 2026 · 07:57 UTC
#Bitcoin - The final leg down coming?
In every cycle, the 200 & 300 MA have acted as key support zones for BTC.
• 2018 - BTC bottomed at the 200 MA
• 2022 - BTC broke below the 200 MA and bottomed below the 300 MA
Now in 2026:
• 200 MA sits around $61,400
• 300 MA sits around $54,500
The HTF structure has also turned bearish.
If BTC takes another leg down, there is a strong possibility of price testing the 200–300 MA zone again.
Historically, this area has acted as a major support and could potentially form the next bottom.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Conditional |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | heavy_hedge |
| Duration | 90 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | $61,422 |
| Trigger Operator | Acceptance Below |
AI Reasoning
The conditional 'if BTC takes another leg down' has no specific numeric trigger stated. The 200-300 MA zone ($54,500-$61,400) is described as a potential bottoming/support area where price could reverse up. However, the forecaster only says price could 'test' this zone and 'potentially' bottom — heavily hedged. Direction is ambiguous since they discuss further downside before the bounce. Targets are ambiguous since the MA zone could be read as a destination for the downward leg rather than a reversal target.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC bottoms at the 200–300 MA zone ($54,500–$61,400). No explicit horizon attached to the outcome. This is a bottom/trend-reversal call with HTF (high-timeframe) and cycle/historical framing → Signal B2, with ↑ to 60 for HTF and cycle framing.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
Gate 1: BTC on weekly timeframe identified. Gate 2: Asset matches Stage 3. Gate 3: Trigger structure present — pink/red shaded 'BOTTOM?' box between 200 SMA and 300 SMA on the right side of the chart, with the 200/300 SMA labeled lines acting as the bidding/support zone. Gate 4: Direction consistent — zone represents potential reversal up from support. Current price read from y-axis badge at $76,880. Trigger extracted from the 200 SMA price badge ($61,422) at the upper edge of the highlighted bottom zone. Confidence NOT PASS due to overlap with Stage 3 target range — ambiguity between trigger-as-activation vs. target-as-destination.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
| Activation price | $61,422 |
| Target | $54,500 – $61,400 |
| Duration | 90 days · Long Term |
| Trigger level | $61,422 |
| Trigger operator | Acceptance Below |
| Conditional operator | Category D — Bidding / Wick / Liquidity Grab (Reversal UP) |
| Trigger hit | Yes |
| Trigger time | Jun 11, 2026 · 00:00 UTC |
Scoring
This call is conditional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 90 |
| Duration used in scoring | 90 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3B->4B_modeA |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | post_text |
| Commitment level | heavy_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $77,234 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
gate_3_confidence: post_direction_confidence,post_target_confidence,chart_trigger_confidence
Merge Flags
trigger_from_chart: truetrigger_p0_gap_pct: 20.5target_wrong_side_up: truetrigger_p0_gap_over_20pct: 20.5
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 3621.81,
"mfe": 5870.15,
"mqs": 0.853272,
"ocs": 0.618434,
"tif": 0.6,
"mfe_ts": "2026-06-15 16:00:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.247342,
"sigma_d": 0.02305197,
"eval_end": "2026-07-04 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.853272,
"max_close": 67292.14,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-06-11 00:00:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": 61422,
"trigger_ts": "2026-06-11 00:00:00+00:00",
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": true,
"review_flags": {
"trigger_p0_gap_pct": 20.5,
"target_wrong_side_up": true,
"trigger_p0_gap_over_20pct": 20.5
},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 90,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.919172,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.579762,
"activation_price": 61422,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 2231,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.049798,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1w",
"tif_total_aggregated": 5,
"trigger_candle_index": 3,
"aggregated_candles_count": 5,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 3,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 5
} 