Passport #65433 · Mar 18, 2026 · 17:40 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | declarative |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Forecaster bought at 71k (entry/trigger) and plans to sell at 78-82k (target range). Trigger confidence is NOT PASS because 71k is an entry price rather than a clear activation level — it could reasonably be argued this is just an entry, not a conditional trigger.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC rises to 78-82k range. No outcome-anchored horizon phrase; the trigger is a price level (not temporal). No bounce/urgency/macro signal fires → DEFAULT 30.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 6590.62,
"mfe": 6742.38,
"mqs": 0.453529,
"ocs": 0.505691,
"tif": 0.290323,
"mfe_ts": "2026-04-17 16:30:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.406251,
"sigma_d": 0.02847868,
"eval_end": "2026-04-17 17:40:56+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.453529,
"max_close": 78161.62,
"min_close": 65620.39,
"eval_start": "2026-03-18 17:40:56+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 30,
"mew_days_used": 30,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.604273,
"target_hit_ts": "2026-04-17 14:45:00+00:00",
"accuracy_score": 0.413948,
"activation_price": 71590.62,
"dir_target_score": 1,
"candles_evaluated": 2880,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.155856,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 31,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 31,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 9,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 31
}