Call Audit

Every scored call is fully auditable

Passport #149294 · Jul 10, 2026 · 18:32 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC

@randgroup

Jul 10, 2026 · 18:32 UTC

Two times in Bitcoin's history only 45% of coins sat in profit: 🔸 $3k ran to $69k 🔸 $16k ran to $126k It's happening a third time right now. Source: @FrankAFetter https://t.co/HF5D7dWYrP

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Long
Commitment	mild_hedge
Duration	120 days · Long Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Implicit up call based on historical pattern — post cites two prior instances where 45% coins in profit preceded major rallies ($3k→$69k, $16k→$126k) and states 'it's happening a third time right now,' implying BTC will rally. The $69k and $126k numbers are historical references (previous rally endpoints), not forecaster's targets, so not extracted. No explicit target for the third rally is provided. Tone is suggestive rather than declarative — mild_hedge.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC rallies significantly (implied major bull run). No explicit horizon phrase. The post references historical cycle-level rallies ($3k→$69k, $16k→$126k) as the implied outcome, which is earnest macro/cycle framing → Signal H base 120.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Long
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$63,884
Target	—
Duration	120 days · Long Term

Scoring

This call is directional live — no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration source	ai_inferred
Duration stated (days)	120
Duration used in scoring	120

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A->4A
Merge source	merged
Direction source	post_text
Target source	none
Commitment level	mild_hedge
Spot price at post	$63,884
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 227.99,
  "mfe": 426.01,
  "mqs": 0.435799,
  "ocs": 0.651391,
  "tif": 1,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-07-11 01:30:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.015262,
  "sigma_d": 0.02162535,
  "eval_end": "2026-07-11 05:30:00+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.435799,
  "max_close": 64228.82,
  "min_close": 63732.25,
  "eval_start": "2026-07-10 18:32:00+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 90,
  "mew_days_used": 120,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 0.572345,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.525613,
  "activation_price": 63883.99,
  "dir_target_score": null,
  "candles_evaluated": 44,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.011651,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "2w",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 1,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 1,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}