Passport #183402 · Aug 12, 2026 · 16:13 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
The forecaster argues that devastating news failing to move price signals 'the bottom is close', implying an upward move is imminent. No specific price targets provided. 'Close' is a soft prediction, so mild_hedge.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC bottoms and moves up. 'The bottom is close' is a bottom call (Signal B2 base 30), with no urgency cues to push to 14 and no macro/cycle framing to push to 60.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 107.71,
"mfe": 101.94,
"mqs": 0.198119,
"ocs": 0.486239,
"tif": 0,
"mfe_ts": "2026-08-12 16:45:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.007351,
"sigma_d": 0.01454703,
"eval_end": "2026-08-12 19:30:00+00:00",
"end_close": 63439.02,
"magnitude": 0.198119,
"max_close": 63564.59,
"min_close": 63386.16,
"eval_start": "2026-08-12 16:13:27+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"end_close_ts": "2026-08-12 19:30:00+00:00",
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 30,
"mew_days_used": 30,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.220796,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.172927,
"activation_price": 63476.06,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 14,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.007274,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 1,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 1,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}