Passport #183365 · Aug 12, 2026 · 11:55 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Post argues 'downside case is getting harder to justify' which implies an upward bias. Numbers cited ($53K realized price, $50K LTH realized price) are on-chain metric references, not price targets. No explicit up targets stated. Language is analytical/hedged rather than a firm declaration.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC moves up (downside case weakening). No explicit horizon phrase bound to the outcome. On-chain metric analysis with no urgency, bounce, or macro signal language → DEFAULT 30.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 924.04,
"mfe": 259.96,
"mqs": 0.428398,
"ocs": 0.219561,
"tif": 0,
"mfe_ts": "2026-08-12 12:45:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.018522,
"sigma_d": 0.01447028,
"eval_end": "2026-08-12 19:30:00+00:00",
"end_close": 63439.02,
"magnitude": 0.428398,
"max_close": 64412,
"min_close": 63363.39,
"eval_start": "2026-08-12 11:55:10+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"end_close_ts": "2026-08-12 19:30:00+00:00",
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 30,
"mew_days_used": 30,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.559312,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.16662,
"activation_price": 64240.04,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 31,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.007235,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 1,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 1,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}