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Call Audit
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Passport #136651 · Jun 10, 2026 · 18:30 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains intact and alive
All the data suggests this cycle is no different to others
The top came in the same time frame post-halving
Now, we wait to see if the bottoming phase repeats
If so, Q4 would see the Bitcoin bottom occur before entering a new cycle in 2027
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | heavy_hedge |
| Duration | 204 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
The forecaster predicts a 'bottoming phase' in Q4, implying a down move before the bottom. Language is heavily hedged ('if so', 'we wait to see'). No specific price target is stated for the bottom.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC bottoms in Q4. 'Q4' is bound to the outcome (the bottoming event). D = 2026-06-10; Q4 ends Dec 31, 2026; Dec 31 − Jun 10 = 204 days.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $62,016 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 204 days · Long Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | explicit_text |
| Duration stated (days) | 204 |
| Duration used in scoring | 204 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | heavy_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $62,016 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 5276.15,
"mfe": 4215.81,
"mqs": 0.498944,
"ocs": 0.444145,
"tif": 0,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.118769,
"sigma_d": 0.02184379,
"eval_end": "2026-07-04 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.498944,
"max_close": 67292.14,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-06-10 18:30:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 204,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.691038,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.265464,
"activation_price": 62016,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 2253,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.098373,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
"tif_total_aggregated": 1,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 1,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}