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Passport #141124 · Jun 26, 2026 · 08:21 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
MA@macrocrg
Jun 26, 2026 · 08:21 UTC
bitcoin:native first level bulls need to reclaim to stage a recovery - monthly value @ ~$60.8k
price still looking ropey otherwise
uni of michigan inflation expectations out @ 10:00am EST could be the catalyst (or not, time to pay attention) https://t.co/dkSddDMPD2
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Conditional |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 7 days · Short Term |
| Trigger | $60,800 |
| Trigger Operator | Reclaim |
AI Reasoning
Single conditional claim: bulls need to reclaim ~$60.8k (monthly value) to stage a recovery. Trigger is the reclaim level; direction is up after reclaim. No specific numeric target stated for the recovery.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC stages a recovery after reclaiming ~$60.8k. Per §0.5, the reclaim of $60.8k is the trigger; 'recovery' is the outcome with no explicit horizon attached. 'Recovery' language routes to Signal B2 (bottom call / trend reversal), base 30, with no tiebreaker cues to modulate.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
| Activation price | $61,613 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 7 days · Short Term |
| Trigger level | $60,800 |
| Trigger operator | Reclaim |
| Conditional operator | Category C — Reclaim/Acceptance/Flip Bullish |
| Trigger hit | Yes |
| Trigger time | Jul 2, 2026 · 16:00 UTC |
Scoring
0.72composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.65 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.86 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.91 |
| Magnitude | 0.65 |
| Max Favorable Move | +5.0% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −0.8% |
| Candles evaluated | 673 · 4h |
| Eval window | Jul 2, 2026 · 16:00 UTC → Jul 9, 2026 · 16:00 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 7 |
| Duration used in scoring | 7 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3B->4B_modeB |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $60,315 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 503.94,
"mfe": 3087.07,
"mqs": 0.651405,
"ocs": 0.859666,
"tif": 0.906977,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-06 21:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.442077,
"sigma_d": 0.02314759,
"eval_end": "2026-07-09 16:00:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.651405,
"max_close": 64489.98,
"min_close": 61191.99,
"eval_start": "2026-07-02 16:00:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": 61612.93,
"trigger_ts": "2026-07-02 16:00:00+00:00",
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": true,
"trigger_hit": true,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 14,
"mew_days_used": 7,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.053845,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.715031,
"activation_price": 61612.93,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 673,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.047544,
"scoring_candle_tf": "4h",
"tif_total_aggregated": 43,
"trigger_candle_index": 37,
"aggregated_candles_count": 43,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 39,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 43
} 