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Call Audit
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Passport #154427 · Jul 14, 2026 · 20:42 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC
This $BTC short only needs to win 11.8% of the time to break even.
At a 25% win rate, it pays +112R per 100 trades.
The catch: at 25% WR, an 8-loss streak inside 100 trades is 96% likely. https://t.co/lSiPEuPlhu
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | — |
| Duration | 7 days · Short Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
Short position tool displayed with stop at 65158.8 (entry level) and target at 60564.6. Current price is below entry, meaning price must travel up to the entry level (65022) to activate the short trade, then move down to target. Classified as conditional short with liquidity grab / short-at-level operator.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $64,487 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 7 days · Short Term |
Scoring
0.43composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.62 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.44 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.40 |
| Magnitude | 0.62 |
| Max Favorable Move | +3.0% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −3.8% |
| Candles evaluated | 672 · 4h |
| Eval window | Jul 14, 2026 · 20:42 UTC → Jul 21, 2026 · 20:42 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 7 |
| Duration used in scoring | 7 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 4D |
| Merge source | chart_only |
| Direction source | chart |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | — |
| Spot price at post | $64,487 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
gate_1_complex_path: path=4D
Merge Flags
orphan_chart: true
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 2468.73,
"mfe": 1949.86,
"mqs": 0.623949,
"ocs": 0.441286,
"tif": 0.395349,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-17 14:00:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.27894,
"sigma_d": 0.01874321,
"eval_end": "2026-07-21 20:42:21+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.623949,
"max_close": 66944.4,
"min_close": 62568.18,
"eval_start": "2026-07-14 20:42:21+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": true,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 14,
"mew_days_used": 7,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.978032,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.434881,
"activation_price": 64487.42,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 672,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.030915,
"scoring_candle_tf": "4h",
"tif_total_aggregated": 43,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 43,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 17,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 43
}