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Passport #82688 · May 29, 2026 · 13:38 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
LA@layahheilpern
May 29, 2026 · 13:38 UTC
Oil is down 19% in May.
The bullish thesis was "oil drops, Fed cuts, BTC moons."
Yet bitcoin is bleeding...
And another $700M has left the bitcoin ETFs.
We're about to enter the most exciting part of the crypto cycle, lower lows!
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | sarcastic |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
The post uses sarcasm ('most exciting part of the crypto cycle, lower lows!') to predict BTC will make lower lows. Direction is clearly down despite the sarcastic framing. No specific price targets mentioned.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC makes lower lows. 'About to enter' has urgency flavor but the claim is framed as a cycle-phase statement ('most exciting part of the crypto cycle'), not a short-term bounce or macro bull call. No outcome-bound horizon phrase exists. Signal C could apply to 'about to' but the cycle framing and lack of a specific short-term target push this to DEFAULT 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $73,262 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
Scoring
0.87composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.92 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.92 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.90 |
| Magnitude | 0.92 |
| Max Favorable Move | +20.7% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −1.7% |
| Candles evaluated | 2880 · 1d |
| Eval window | May 29, 2026 · 13:38 UTC → Jun 28, 2026 · 13:38 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | ai_inferred |
| Duration stated (days) | 30 |
| Duration used in scoring | 30 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A |
| Merge source | post_only |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | sarcastic |
| Spot price at post | $73,262 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 1252.11,
"mfe": 15146.98,
"mqs": 0.91728,
"ocs": 0.923648,
"tif": 0.903226,
"mfe_ts": "2026-06-25 14:00:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.738155,
"sigma_d": 0.01596059,
"eval_end": "2026-06-28 13:38:54+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.91728,
"max_close": 74257.7,
"min_close": 58290.17,
"eval_start": "2026-05-29 13:38:54+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 30,
"mew_days_used": 30,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 2.492291,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.870577,
"activation_price": 73261.99,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 2880,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.082956,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 31,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 31,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 28,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 31
}