Passport #82387 · May 27, 2026 · 17:08 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | declarative |
| Duration | 218 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Forecaster references their own months-long call for BTC to drop below 55k, endorsing the Polymarket pricing. Direction is clearly down with 55k as the target threshold. Tone is declarative as they confirm their standing prediction.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC drops below $55K. The phrase 'before the year ends' is bound to the outcome and anchors it to Dec 31, 2026. D = 2026-05-27; Dec 31, 2026 − May 27, 2026 = 218 days.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 447.56,
"mfe": 17168.06,
"mqs": 0.827021,
"ocs": 0.974593,
"tif": 1,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.37039,
"sigma_d": 0.02227309,
"eval_end": "2026-07-04 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.827021,
"max_close": 75309.33,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-05-27 17:08:03+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 218,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.754587,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.793001,
"activation_price": 74968.25,
"dir_target_score": 0.841257,
"candles_evaluated": 3602,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.130518,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
"tif_total_aggregated": 2,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 2,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 2,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 2
}