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Passport #166111 · Jul 25, 2026 · 07:04 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
KI@kingpincrypto12
Jul 25, 2026 · 07:04 UTC
$BTC - The monthly chart paints a very clean picture IMO.
Red box = 2nd touch of Key support, hence the decent bullish reaction of off it this month.
However, monthly trend is still clearly bearish. Moreover, last months giga bearish candle is pointing towards bearish continuation IMO.
I wouldn't get overly bullish on this bounce considering the zoomed out picture. Price re-visiting the red box and possibly the local lows again is highly probable IMO. As early as next month even I think.
Lastly, I just want to make it clear, in terms of spot buys I am very bullish here. As I've said before, anything under $60k is a steal IMO.
The more that the price ranges here, the stronger the case for the bottom gets. 4yr cycle ideal bottom dates are getting very close too.
Macro and cyclically - Very bullish around here.
Short term - I expect continued downside.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Short-term call is clearly down ('I expect continued downside', revisit red box/local lows). No specific numeric downside target is given — the red box and local lows are referenced but no price levels stated. The $60k reference is a spot-buy entry level, not a downside target. 'Highly probable IMO' and 'I think' indicate mild hedge.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC continued downside, revisiting red box/local lows. 'As early as next month even I think' is bound to the outcome (price re-visiting support), not a trigger. D = 2026-07-25; 'next month' → end of August 2026 = Aug 31, 2026; 37 days — but 'next month' maps to the canonical 30-day relative duration per §3.2.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $64,021 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
Scoring
0.16composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.30 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.32 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.00 |
| Magnitude | 0.30 |
| Max Favorable Move | +0.3% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −0.7% |
| Candles evaluated | 49 · 1d |
| Eval window | Jul 25, 2026 · 07:04 UTC → Jul 25, 2026 · 19:15 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | explicit_text |
| Duration stated (days) | 30 |
| Duration used in scoring | 30 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $64,021 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 454.21,
"mfe": 211.07,
"mqs": 0.295257,
"ocs": 0.317265,
"tif": 0,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-25 09:00:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.015091,
"sigma_d": 0.0188435,
"eval_end": "2026-07-25 19:15:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.295257,
"max_close": 64438.1,
"min_close": 63873.17,
"eval_start": "2026-07-25 07:04:22+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 30,
"mew_days_used": 30,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.349923,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.156903,
"activation_price": 64021.07,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 49,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.009422,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 1,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 1,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
} 