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Passport #27900 · Apr 28, 2026 · 06:44 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
IV@ivanontech
Apr 28, 2026 · 06:44 UTC
GOOOD MORNING CRYPTO!!!
CAREFUL HERE
BITCOIN DUMPS HARD EACH MAY
While bulls were euphoric, Bitcoin:
❌ didn’t break above bull market support band
❌ didn’t go into bull trend on the money line
❌ didn’t do a higher high
❌ didn’t do any big engulfing candle of any sort to show bull upper hand
DO NOT BE COMPLACENT HERE!!
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 75 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Clear bearish bias: warns of hard May dump and lists multiple bearish technical failures. No specific price targets stated. Tone is cautionary ('CAREFUL', 'DO NOT BE COMPLACENT') rather than fully declarative, so mild_hedge fits best.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC dumps. 'BITCOIN DUMPS HARD EACH MAY' references a seasonal pattern tied to the month of May, but this is a catalyst/historical-pattern phrase, not an outcome-anchored horizon. No explicit timeframe bound to the outcome; no bounce, urgency, or macro signal fires → DEFAULT 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $76,602 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 75 days · Long Term |
Scoring
0.69composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.71 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.75 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.69 |
| Magnitude | 0.71 |
| Max Favorable Move | +24.5% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −8.2% |
| Candles evaluated | 7200 · 3d |
| Eval window | Apr 28, 2026 · 06:44 UTC → Jul 12, 2026 · 06:44 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | reviewer_override |
| Duration stated (days) | 75 |
| Duration used in scoring | 75 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $76,602 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 6247.84,
"mfe": 18801.97,
"mqs": 0.710116,
"ocs": 0.750583,
"tif": 0.692308,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.611054,
"sigma_d": 0.0248218,
"eval_end": "2026-07-12 06:44:43+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.710116,
"max_close": 82684.01,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-04-28 06:44:43+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": true,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 75,
"mew_days_used": 75,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.238276,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.691015,
"activation_price": 76602.16,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 7200,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.198219,
"scoring_candle_tf": "3d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 26,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 26,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 18,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 26
} 