Call Audit

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Passport #180872 · Aug 9, 2026 · 19:37 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC

@ivanontech

Aug 9, 2026 · 19:37 UTC

Being full bear now is dumb I was full bear from October to June Since June I’m DCAing Bitcoin is at 200W MA Could it go lower? Yes But the upside is much much bigger I don’t know the future I don’t know if the bottom is in My job is not to be Nostradamus My job is to bet on positive EV outcomes BEING FULL BEAR IS NOT POSITIVE EV HERE!!!!

🤖Ask the AI Analyst about this call →@ivanontech's BTC record, on demand — every answer traceable to scored posts

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Long
Commitment	mild_hedge
Duration	90 days · Long Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Author expresses clear bullish lean ('upside is much much bigger', DCAing, being full bear is not +EV) indicating up direction. No specific price targets stated — 200W MA is mentioned as current location, not a destination. Language is hedged ('could go lower', 'don't know if bottom is in') making this a mild_hedge rather than declarative.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC moves up. No explicit horizon phrase bound to the outcome. The author is DCAing (Signal E: active accumulation) with no macro payoff language and no near-term exit cited; the mid-horizon accumulation framing ('DCAing since June', 200W MA context) points to the 90-day bucket within Signal E's band.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Long
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$65,198
Target	—
Duration	90 days · Long Term

Scoring

This call is directional live — no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration source	ai_inferred
Duration stated (days)	90
Duration used in scoring	90

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A
Merge source	post_only
Direction source	post_text
Target source	none
Commitment level	mild_hedge
Spot price at post	$65,198
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 371.16,
  "mfe": 276.52,
  "mqs": 0.33658,
  "ocs": 0.426939,
  "tif": 0,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-08-09 22:15:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.011208,
  "sigma_d": 0.02067146,
  "eval_end": "2026-08-10 05:15:00+00:00",
  "end_close": 64979.88,
  "magnitude": 0.33658,
  "max_close": 65408.05,
  "min_close": 64838,
  "eval_start": "2026-08-09 19:37:30+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "score_final": false,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "end_close_ts": "2026-08-10 05:15:00+00:00",
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 90,
  "mew_days_used": 90,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 0.410347,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.193682,
  "activation_price": 65197.94,
  "dir_target_score": null,
  "candles_evaluated": 39,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.010336,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "1w",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 1,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 1,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}