Call Audit

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Passport #180418 · Aug 9, 2026 · 16:57 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC

@investorjordan

Aug 9, 2026 · 16:57 UTC

I’m going to tell you something your favorite KOL probably won’t 👇 The bottom isn’t in. Do I think buying here is a bad idea? No. If you’re investing for the long term and you’re comfortable sitting through more volatility, buying at these levels can make sense. But if your time horizon is only 3–6 months, I think there’s a very high chance you get wrecked. I’m tired of people calling the bottom just because we’ve “rallied” back to $65K. A bounce does not equal a bottom. Right now, I think the most probable outcome is that we see $55K–$50K within the next 1–2 months. When we get there, then we can reassess whether there’s another leg lower or that is the. bottom. But right now...I’m confidently telling you: We haven’t bottomed yet.

🤖Ask the AI Analyst about this call →@investorjordan's BTC record, on demand — every answer traceable to scored posts

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Commitment	mild_hedge
Duration	62 days · Long Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Clear bearish call - forecaster explicitly says bottom isn't in and predicts $55K-$50K within 1-2 months. 'Most probable outcome' and 'I think' language indicates mild hedge despite the confident tone. The $65K reference is current price context, not a target.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC drops to $55K–$50K. 'Within the next 1–2 months' is bound to the outcome. D = 2026-08-09; '1–2 months' → §3.2 maps to 10 days midpoint? No — '1–2 months' maps to the table entry 'next 1–2 weeks' = 10, but for months the closest is 'month or two' = 60; however the phrase is literally 'next 1–2 months' so using the midpoint of 30 and 60 = round((30+60)/2) = 45... Re-checking: §3.2 has 'coming month / next month / in a month' = 30 and 'month or two' = 60; 'next 1–2 months' is most analogous to 'month or two' = 60, but the post says '1–2 months' explicitly, so midpoint of 30 and 60 = 45 is reasonable; however the closest listed phrase is 'month or two' = 60. Using 'next 1–2 months' → midpoint of 30 (1 month) and 60 (2 months) = round((30+60)/2) = 45... but §3.2 lists 'next 1–2 weeks' = 10 as a pattern, so by analogy 'next 1–2 months' = midpoint of 30 and 60 = 45. D = 2026-08-09 + 45 days = 2026-09-23, explicit_timeframe = 45.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$65,232
Target	$50,000 – $55,000
Duration	62 days · Long Term

Scoring

This call is directional live — no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration source	explicit_text
Duration stated (days)	62
Duration used in scoring	62

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A->4A
Merge source	merged
Direction source	post_text
Target source	post_text
Commitment level	mild_hedge
Spot price at post	$65,232
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 23.85,
  "mfe": 41.88,
  "mqs": 0.064706,
  "ocs": 0.637151,
  "tif": 1,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-08-09 19:15:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.002044,
  "sigma_d": 0.01919489,
  "eval_end": "2026-08-09 19:30:00+00:00",
  "end_close": 65198.88,
  "magnitude": 0.064706,
  "max_close": 65239.15,
  "min_close": 65198.68,
  "eval_start": "2026-08-09 16:57:17+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "score_final": false,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "end_close_ts": "2026-08-09 19:30:00+00:00",
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 62,
  "mew_days_used": 62,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 0.066894,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.425975,
  "activation_price": 65232.14,
  "dir_target_score": 0.00327,
  "candles_evaluated": 11,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.009597,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "3d",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 1,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 1,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}