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Passport #155125 · Jul 16, 2026 · 11:20 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC
GE@gertvanlagen
Jul 16, 2026 · 11:20 UTC
$BTC [1M] is printing a third bear trap at the lower trend line of the rising channel since 2018 bear market bottom.
Blow-off wave (5) of ⑤ remains the primary anticipation, as long as price does not drop below ~$31k.
Target wave (5) has risen over time, currently at ~$400k. https://t.co/YgVSzNlJ6C
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Conditional |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 120 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | $31,000 |
| Trigger Operator | Hold Above |
AI Reasoning
31k is the hold-trigger (price must not drop below it) for the bullish scenario. 400k is the target destination for wave 5. Single conditional claim. Mild hedge due to 'primary anticipation' language.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC reaches ~$400k (blow-off wave 5 target). No outcome-anchored horizon phrase exists; the '1M' chart reference and 'rising channel since 2018' are analysis-frame/past-behaviour language, not outcome horizons. The claim is an earnest macro/cycle target (blow-off top, wave 5 of cycle degree) → Signal H base 120.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
| Activation price | $64,185 |
| Target | $400,000 – $400,000 |
| Duration | 120 days · Long Term |
| Trigger level | $31,000 |
| Trigger operator | Hold Above |
| Conditional operator | Category A — Hold/Defend/Maintain/Support |
| Trigger hit | No |
Scoring
This call is conditional pending — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | ai_inferred |
| Duration stated (days) | 120 |
| Duration used in scoring | — |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3B->4B_modeB |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | post_text |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $64,185 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mqs": null,
"ocs": null,
"tif": null,
"status": "untriggered",
"eval_end": "2026-07-18 05:15:00+00:00",
"magnitude": null,
"eval_start": "2026-07-16 11:20:54+00:00",
"trigger_ts": null,
"trigger_hit": false,
"review_flags": {
"trigger_p0_gap_over_20pct": 51.7
},
"accuracy_score": null,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 168
} 