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Call Audit
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Passport #77561 · Jan 31, 2026 · 21:06 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
The last two $BTC cycles followed the same script:
• 3 years of upside
• The 3rd year sets a new ATH
• Year 4 = bear market
But this cycle broke the pattern.
We only got 2 years of up only.
The 3rd year still printed a new ATH, yet closed the year red.
A structural shift.
And now people want a villain…
Apparently it’s all Binance’s fault.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | — |
| Duration | 365 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
Chart shows BTC 12M with recurring 4-year 'Bear Market' vertical labels. The most recent Bear Market label is positioned at Jan 2026, accompanied by a red down arrow at the current price area, indicating the forecaster expects a bear market / downward move from current levels. Green up arrows on historical candles are annotations of past bull years and do not count as forecasts. The single forward-looking element is the red downward arrow at the current price aligned with the 2026 'Bear Market' label.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $77,671 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 365 days · Long Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | reviewer_override |
| Duration stated (days) | 365 |
| Duration used in scoring | 365 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 4D |
| Merge source | chart_only |
| Direction source | chart |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | — |
| Spot price at post | $77,671 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
gate_1_complex_path: path=4D
Merge Flags
orphan_chart: true
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 5179.44,
"mfe": 19870.37,
"mqs": 0.576961,
"ocs": 0.793234,
"tif": 0.833333,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.323665,
"sigma_d": 0.02426659,
"eval_end": "2026-07-03 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.576961,
"max_close": 82684.01,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-01-31 21:06:44+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 365,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.860292,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.631798,
"activation_price": 77670.56,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 14626,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.297375,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
"tif_total_aggregated": 6,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 6,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 5,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 6
}