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Call Audit
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Passport #181350 · Aug 10, 2026 · 12:00 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC
ALERT: THIS PATTERN HAS NEVER BEEN WRONG IN BITCOIN HISTORY.
And it just triggered again.
2014 → ATH: $1,240 → -82.91%
2018 → ATH: $19K → -83.23%
2022 → ATH: $69K → -77.7%
2026 → ATH: $126K → -??%
Every cycle. Same pattern. Same result.
The top arrived exactly on schedule.
Now the same pattern is pointing to the next major Bitcoin bottom.
And it's coming in 2026.
The moment I make my first buy…
You'll see it here first.
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Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | declarative |
| Duration | 143 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Bearish call predicting a major Bitcoin bottom in 2026 following the historical -77% to -83% drawdown pattern from the $126K ATH. The '-??%' explicitly leaves the target undefined, and the historical percentages are references to past cycles, not a stated prediction for this cycle. No explicit target price given, so targets are null. Declarative tone with 'pattern has never been wrong' and 'it's coming in 2026'.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC declines to a major bottom. 'In 2026' is bound to the outcome (the bottom arrives in 2026). D = 2026-08-10; Dec 31 2026 − Aug 10 2026 = 143 days.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $65,126 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 143 days · Long Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | explicit_text |
| Duration stated (days) | 143 |
| Duration used in scoring | 143 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | declarative |
| Spot price at post | $65,126 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 111.8,
"mfe": 1319.73,
"mqs": 0.842736,
"ocs": 0.921902,
"tif": 1,
"mfe_ts": "2026-08-10 18:45:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.042462,
"sigma_d": 0.02065759,
"eval_end": "2026-08-10 19:30:00+00:00",
"end_close": 63944.35,
"magnitude": 0.842736,
"max_close": 65126,
"min_close": 63888,
"eval_start": "2026-08-10 12:00:03+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"end_close_ts": "2026-08-10 19:30:00+00:00",
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 143,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.849829,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.701775,
"activation_price": 65126,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 30,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.010955,
"scoring_candle_tf": "2w",
"tif_total_aggregated": 1,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 1,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}