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Passport #166149 · Jul 25, 2026 · 10:44 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
THE REALIZED LOSS SIGNAL JUST HIT EXTREME DEPTHS.
This is what maximum pain looks like on-chain.
Holders selling at the heaviest losses of this entire cycle.
But here is what extreme realized loss readings have always meant in Bitcoin history.
Not more downside.
The end of it.
The deepest loss realizations have marked every major bottom with brutal precision.
The pain is loudest right before it stops.
And right now it has never been louder.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Post argues extreme realized loss readings historically mark bottoms, not more downside — implying an upward call on BTC. No price targets stated. Tone is confident but framed via historical pattern rather than a direct declaration, so mild_hedge.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC bottoms and reverses upward. No explicit horizon phrase attached to the outcome. The post uses bottom-call language ('end of it', 'marked every major bottom') → Signal B2 base 30; no urgency or macro cues to modulate → stays at 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $64,030 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
Scoring
0.61composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.47 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.93 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 1.00 |
| Magnitude | 0.47 |
| Max Favorable Move | +0.7% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −0.1% |
| Candles evaluated | 35 · 1d |
| Eval window | Jul 25, 2026 · 10:44 UTC → Jul 25, 2026 · 19:15 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | ai_inferred |
| Duration stated (days) | 30 |
| Duration used in scoring | 30 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $64,030 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 34.06,
"mfe": 445.22,
"mqs": 0.471834,
"ocs": 0.928935,
"tif": 1,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-25 18:45:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.031818,
"sigma_d": 0.0188484,
"eval_end": "2026-07-25 19:15:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.471834,
"max_close": 64438.1,
"min_close": 64030.06,
"eval_start": "2026-07-25 10:44:04+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 30,
"mew_days_used": 30,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.638344,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.608147,
"activation_price": 64030.06,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 35,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.010893,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 1,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 1,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}