Call Audit

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Passport #152163 · Jul 13, 2026 · 08:00 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC

@cryptotice_

Jul 13, 2026 · 08:00 UTC

SPOT DEMAND HAS BEEN NEGATIVE SINCE DECEMBER 2025. Seven straight months of buyers failing to absorb new supply. The worst reading hit minus 273,000 BTC in mid-June. Today still sitting at minus 100,000 BTC. Futures are occasionally positive. But speculation cannot build a foundation. Only real spot demand can reverse this trend. And real spot demand is still missing. Until this changes the underlying trend remains negative. Stay vigilant.

🤖Ask the AI Analyst about this call →@cryptotice_'s BTC record, on demand — every answer traceable to scored posts

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Commitment	mild_hedge
Duration	30 days · Medium Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Post explicitly states 'the underlying trend remains negative' indicating a bearish stance on BTC. The -273,000 and -100,000 BTC figures refer to spot demand flows, not price targets. No price targets stated. Language is analytical/cautious ('stay vigilant', 'until this changes') = mild_hedge.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC continues declining (negative underlying trend). No explicit horizon attached to the outcome; 'until this changes' is a conditional trigger, not a timeframe. No bounce, bottom-call, urgency, or macro signal fires → DEFAULT 30.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$63,039
Target	—
Duration	30 days · Medium Term

Scoring

0.29composite Call Rank Score

Move Score (MQS)	0.73
Path Score (OCS)	0.24
Time Score (TIF)	0.10
Magnitude	0.73
Max Favorable Move	+1.9%
Max Unfavorable Move	−6.2%
Candles evaluated	2880 · 1d
Eval window	Jul 13, 2026 · 08:00 UTC → Aug 12, 2026 · 08:00 UTC

Duration Resolution

Duration source	ai_inferred
Duration stated (days)	30
Duration used in scoring	30

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A->4A
Merge source	merged
Direction source	post_text
Target source	none
Commitment level	mild_hedge
Spot price at post	$63,039
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 3917.51,
  "mfe": 1213.67,
  "mqs": 0.734526,
  "ocs": 0.236528,
  "tif": 0.096774,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-07-13 18:30:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.087903,
  "sigma_d": 0.02194801,
  "eval_end": "2026-08-12 08:00:02+00:00",
  "end_close": 63837.99,
  "magnitude": 0.734526,
  "max_close": 66944.4,
  "min_close": 61904.99,
  "eval_start": "2026-07-13 08:00:02+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "score_final": true,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "end_close_ts": "2026-08-12 08:00:00+00:00",
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 30,
  "mew_days_used": 30,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 1.326237,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.288933,
  "activation_price": 63038.64,
  "dir_target_score": null,
  "candles_evaluated": 2880,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.014517,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "1d",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 31,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 31,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 3,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 31
}