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Call Audit
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Passport #170251 · Jul 29, 2026 · 17:14 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC
$BTC HAS NEVER CLOSED AUGUST IN THE GREEN DURING MIDTERM YEARS.
It has NEVER happened.
This time likely won't be different.
Bearish for Bitcoin. https://t.co/HmcrlH1oVV
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 3 days · Short Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Clear bearish call for Bitcoin based on historical August pattern in midterm years. 'Likely won't be different' softens to mild_hedge. No specific price targets stated.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC closes August in the red (bearish). The post explicitly references 'August' as the evaluation window; D = 2026-07-29, end of August = Aug 31 2026, which is 33 days out. However, the specific claim is about the August monthly close, so the relevant horizon is the end of August: Aug 31 2026 − Jul 29 2026 = 33 days.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $63,874 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 3 days · Short Term |
Scoring
0.48composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.65 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.48 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.50 |
| Magnitude | 0.65 |
| Max Favorable Move | +2.2% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −2.4% |
| Candles evaluated | 288 · 1h |
| Eval window | Jul 29, 2026 · 17:14 UTC → Aug 1, 2026 · 17:14 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | explicit_text |
| Duration stated (days) | 3 |
| Duration used in scoring | 3 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $63,874 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 1536.02,
"mfe": 1407.54,
"mqs": 0.648363,
"ocs": 0.478176,
"tif": 0.5,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-31 14:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.308591,
"sigma_d": 0.01539492,
"eval_end": "2026-08-01 17:14:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.648363,
"max_close": 65189.32,
"min_close": 62584,
"eval_start": "2026-07-29 17:14:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": true,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 14,
"mew_days_used": 3,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.045156,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.483783,
"activation_price": 63873.54,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 288,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.021084,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1h",
"tif_total_aggregated": 72,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 72,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 36,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 72
}