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Call Audit
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Passport #180399 · Aug 9, 2026 · 14:00 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
$BTC
Word of advice:
When Bitcoin breaks out of this macro downtrend,
whatever you do, don’t fade the breakout.
I watched a lot of people make that mistake in prior cycles too.
They over-complicate something that is actually pretty simple.
The best trend-shift confirmations are almost always on the weekly.
2018.
2022.
And now in 2026.
My view remains the same:
The bottom is most likely in, or at the very least, very close.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Directional up call based on 'bottom is most likely in' and anticipation of a breakout from macro downtrend. No explicit price targets provided. 'Most likely' and 'at the very least, very close' indicate a mild hedge.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC bottom is in / upward breakout begins. No outcome-anchored horizon phrase; 'in 2026' is bound to a historical pattern reference, not the predicted outcome. 'The bottom is most likely in, or very close' is a bottom call → Signal B2 base 30; no urgency cues (↓14) and macro/cycle framing is present but the evaluable claim is the bottom itself not the subsequent bull run, so no ↑60 → stays at base 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Long |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $65,220 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 30 days · Medium Term |
Scoring
0.17composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.15 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.54 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.00 |
| Magnitude | 0.15 |
| Max Favorable Move | +0.1% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −0.1% |
| Candles evaluated | 23 · 1d |
| Eval window | Aug 9, 2026 · 14:00 UTC → Aug 9, 2026 · 19:30 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | ai_inferred |
| Duration stated (days) | 30 |
| Duration used in scoring | 30 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A |
| Merge source | post_only |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $65,220 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 68.83,
"mfe": 80.22,
"mqs": 0.15416,
"ocs": 0.538208,
"tif": 0,
"mfe_ts": "2026-08-09 15:00:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.00563,
"sigma_d": 0.01469313,
"eval_end": "2026-08-09 19:30:00+00:00",
"end_close": 65198.88,
"magnitude": 0.15416,
"max_close": 65260.01,
"min_close": 65167.64,
"eval_start": "2026-08-09 14:00:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"end_close_ts": "2026-08-09 19:30:00+00:00",
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 30,
"mew_days_used": 30,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.167424,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.1745,
"activation_price": 65219.78,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 23,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.007347,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 1,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 1,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}