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Passport #155098 · Jul 16, 2026 · 08:00 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
CR@cryptojack
Jul 16, 2026 · 08:00 UTC
The current decline in BTC is increasingly resembling the four-year cyclical corrections seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022. If the current pullback matches the depth and duration of previous bear markets, BTC could reach its cycle bottom around $39,000-$40,000, according to NYDIG. https://t.co/qzHcY3eO1f
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Conditional |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | heavy_hedge |
| Duration | 120 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | Break Below |
AI Reasoning
The condition 'if the current pullback matches the depth and duration of previous bear markets' is not a specific numeric price trigger, so trigger is null. Target is the cycle bottom range of $39,000-$40,000. Heavy hedge due to 'could' and attribution to NYDIG.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC reaches cycle bottom around $39,000-$40,000. No explicit horizon is attached to the outcome (the trigger is a depth/duration condition, not a time phrase). The outcome is a macro/cycle bottom call with explicit bear market and four-year cycle framing → Signal H base 120.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
Gate 1 partially passes on asset (BTC) but this is a drawdown/duration comparison chart, not a price chart with a y-axis in USD. No trigger structure with a price level is visible, so trigger recovery fails.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
| Activation price | $63,944 |
| Target | $39,000 – $40,000 |
| Duration | 120 days · Long Term |
| Trigger level | — |
| Trigger operator | Break Below |
| Conditional operator | Category B — Break/Dump/Lose/Close Below |
| Trigger hit | No |
Scoring
This call is conditional pending — no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | ai_inferred |
| Duration stated (days) | 120 |
| Duration used in scoring | — |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3B->4B_modeA |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | post_text |
| Commitment level | heavy_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $63,944 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Merge Flags
chart_gate_early_stop: true
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mqs": null,
"ocs": null,
"tif": null,
"status": "untriggered_no_level",
"eval_end": "2026-07-18 05:15:00+00:00",
"magnitude": null,
"eval_start": "2026-07-16 08:00:49+00:00",
"trigger_ts": null,
"trigger_hit": false,
"review_flags": {},
"accuracy_score": null,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 181
} 