Call Audit

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Passport #62564 · Apr 30, 2026 · 13:00 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC

@cryptochimpanz

Apr 30, 2026 · 13:00 UTC

0.786 is the standard Fibonacci level of a bear market. That means 40k. Will this time be different? $BTC https://t.co/7Pqj03mJnS

🤖Ask the AI Analyst about this call →@cryptochimpanz's BTC record, on demand — every answer traceable to scored posts

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Commitment	mild_hedge
Duration	90 days · Long Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Author references the 0.786 Fib bear market level pointing to 40k, implying a downside target. The rhetorical 'Will this time be different?' softens the claim to a mild hedge. Target validation is NOT PASS because 40k is presented as a Fibonacci-level reference rather than a firmly stated personal target — a reasonable reader could argue this is technical context rather than a direct forecast.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC declines to 40k. No outcome-anchored horizon phrase present; the post is a rhetorical Fibonacci observation with no temporal cue attached to the predicted move. No §4 signal (bounce, urgency, macro, accumulation) fires → DEFAULT 30.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$76,308
Target	$40,000 – $40,000
Duration	90 days · Long Term

Scoring

0.68composite Call Rank Score

Move Score (MQS)	0.66
Path Score (OCS)	0.74
Time Score (TIF)	0.77
Magnitude	0.66
Max Favorable Move	+24.3%
Max Unfavorable Move	−8.6%
Candles evaluated	8641 · 1w
Eval window	Apr 30, 2026 · 13:00 UTC → Jul 29, 2026 · 13:00 UTC

Duration Resolution

Duration source	chart_timeframe
Duration stated (days)	90
Duration used in scoring	90

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A->4A
Merge source	merged
Direction source	post_text
Target source	post_text
Commitment level	mild_hedge
Spot price at post	$76,308
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

gate_3_confidence: post_target_confidence

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 6541.52,
  "mfe": 18508.29,
  "mqs": 0.662159,
  "ocs": 0.738859,
  "tif": 0.769231,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.565588,
  "sigma_d": 0.02849822,
  "eval_end": "2026-07-29 13:00:00+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.662159,
  "max_close": 82684.01,
  "min_close": 58169.81,
  "eval_start": "2026-04-30 13:00:00+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "score_final": true,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 90,
  "mew_days_used": 90,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 1.085179,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.683959,
  "activation_price": 76308.48,
  "dir_target_score": 0.499571,
  "candles_evaluated": 8641,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.223507,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "1w",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 13,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 13,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 10,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 13
}