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Call Audit
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Passport #172170 · Jul 31, 2026 · 11:38 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
⚠️ August and September of mid term election years are typically bearish for $BTC 😏 📉 https://t.co/I1TVre5N8A
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 62 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Post indicates bearish expectation for BTC in Aug/Sep of mid-term election years, supported by bearish emoji (📉). 'Typically' softens to a mild hedge. No price targets are stated.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC declines. The post explicitly names 'August and September' as the bearish window; D = 2026-07-31, so the outcome horizon runs through end of September 2026 (Sep 30). Sep 30 − Jul 31 = 62 days.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $63,845 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 62 days · Long Term |
Scoring
0.72composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.85 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.96 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 1.00 |
| Magnitude | 0.85 |
| Max Favorable Move | +2.2% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −0.1% |
| Candles evaluated | 31 · 3d |
| Eval window | Jul 31, 2026 · 11:38 UTC → Jul 31, 2026 · 19:15 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | explicit_text |
| Duration stated (days) | 62 |
| Duration used in scoring | 62 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $63,845 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 57.4,
"mfe": 1378.61,
"mqs": 0.85037,
"ocs": 0.960028,
"tif": 1,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-31 14:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.068649,
"sigma_d": 0.02273462,
"eval_end": "2026-07-31 19:15:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.85037,
"max_close": 63844.61,
"min_close": 62584,
"eval_start": "2026-07-31 11:38:11+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 62,
"mew_days_used": 62,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.899588,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.719762,
"activation_price": 63844.61,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 31,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.011367,
"scoring_candle_tf": "3d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 1,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 1,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}