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Call Audit
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Passport #136448 · Jun 9, 2026 · 17:07 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC
How low can $BTC go on this leg down?
My Target is $49-53k
That's where we could stop and consolidate for a month or two before the final capitulation 📉 🩸
1st Leg Down: -36% (October-November)
2nd Leg Down: -38% (January-February)
So the 3rd Leg Down (May-June) could be the same -36% (to match the first one) or it could be 2% deeper than the 2nd one, just as the 2nd Leg Down was 2% deeper than the 1st one. That would be -40%
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | declarative |
| Duration | 60 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Bearish call with explicit target range of $49-53k stated as 'My Target'. Language is declarative ('My Target is'). Direction down is clear from 'leg down', 'capitulation', and negative percentage projections.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC drops to $49-53k. The post states 'stop and consolidate for a month or two' bound to the outcome target zone. 'Month or two' → 60 days per §3.2.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $61,600 |
| Target | $49,000 – $53,000 |
| Duration | 60 days · Medium Term |
Scoring
0.30composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.47 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.40 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.14 |
| Magnitude | 0.47 |
| Max Favorable Move | +6.2% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −9.2% |
| Candles evaluated | 5760 · 3d |
| Eval window | Jun 9, 2026 · 17:07 UTC → Aug 8, 2026 · 17:07 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | explicit_text |
| Duration stated (days) | 60 |
| Duration used in scoring | 60 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | post_text |
| Commitment level | declarative |
| Spot price at post | $61,600 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 5692.16,
"mfe": 3799.8,
"mqs": 0.471692,
"ocs": 0.400318,
"tif": 0.142857,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.197052,
"sigma_d": 0.02092796,
"eval_end": "2026-08-08 17:07:40+00:00",
"end_close": 65086.45,
"magnitude": 0.471692,
"max_close": 67292.14,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-06-09 17:07:40+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": true,
"trigger_hit": null,
"end_close_ts": "2026-08-08 17:00:00+00:00",
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 60,
"mew_days_used": 60,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.638075,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.30298,
"activation_price": 61599.99,
"dir_target_score": 0.398859,
"candles_evaluated": 5760,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.096674,
"scoring_candle_tf": "3d",
"tif_total_aggregated": 21,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 21,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 3,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 21
}