Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | ETH |
| Direction | Long |
| Commitment | heavy_hedge |
| Duration | 268 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Buying long-dated calls signals a bullish/up directional view on ETH. The author refers to them as 'lotto calls' and 'worth the punt,' indicating heavy hedging/low conviction. No specific price targets are stated.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = ETH moves up. 'End of 2026/start of 2027' is bound to the outcome (options expiry horizon). D = 2026-04-08; midpoint of Dec 31 2026 and Jan 1 2027 = Dec 31 2026 → 267 days; rounding to 268 days (Apr 8 to Dec 31 2026 = 267 days).
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 695.73,
"mfe": 263.5,
"mqs": 0.650501,
"ocs": 0.274699,
"tif": 0.333333,
"mfe_ts": "2026-04-17 16:45:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.181292,
"sigma_d": 0.03814337,
"eval_end": "2026-07-04 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.650501,
"max_close": 2459.36,
"min_close": 1518.97,
"eval_start": "2026-04-08 18:53:45+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 268,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.051253,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.359956,
"activation_price": 2201.41,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 8299,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.11386,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
"tif_total_aggregated": 3,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 3,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 3
}