Call Audit

Every scored call is fully auditable

Passport #68203 · Mar 27, 2026 · 13:22 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC

@bobloukas

Mar 27, 2026 · 13:22 UTC

Quarterly candle view of the Bitcoin 4 Year Cycle. Don't get hung up on price. Time matters more than Price. Time gives structure. https://t.co/t6NVHPJHyp

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Conditional
Activation	Active at Trigger

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Long
Commitment	—
Duration	365 days · Long Term
Trigger	$45,000
Trigger Operator	—

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

Chart shows a recurring cycle annotation pattern with red down arrows (33, 35, 35) marking historical tops and green up arrows (44, 47, 47) marking historical bottoms. A green '48' up arrow sits inside a black box near the last candle area, suggesting the forecaster expects an upward move (next cycle bottom/move up). However, ambiguity exists: the green arrow could be interpreted as marking an expected dip-to-bottom before the up move, and the position relative to the very last candle is unclear — it may be annotating a recent low rather than predicting future direction from current price.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Long
Activation	Active at Trigger
Activation price	$68,854
Target	—
Duration	365 days · Long Term
Trigger level	$45,000
Trigger operator	—
Trigger hit	Yes
Trigger time	Apr 7, 2026 · 00:00 UTC

Scoring

This call is conditional live — no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration source	reviewer_override
Duration stated (days)	365
Duration used in scoring	365

Pipeline

Pipeline path	4D
Merge source	chart_only
Direction source	chart
Target source	none
Commitment level	—
Spot price at post	$66,698
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

gate_3_confidence: chart_direction_confidencegate_1_complex_path: path=4D

Merge Flags

orphan_chart: truetrigger_p0_gap_blocked: 32.5trigger_p0_gap_over_20pct: 32.5

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 11053.47,
  "mfe": 13996.34,
  "mqs": 0.733285,
  "ocs": 0.55874,
  "tif": 0.25,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-05-06 11:30:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.260616,
  "sigma_d": 0.02832942,
  "eval_end": "2026-07-03 05:30:00+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.733285,
  "max_close": 82684.01,
  "min_close": 58169.81,
  "eval_start": "2026-04-07 00:00:00+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": 68853.66,
  "trigger_ts": "2026-04-07 00:00:00+00:00",
  "active_mode": false,
  "trigger_hit": true,
  "review_flags": {
    "trigger_p0_gap_over_20pct": 32.5
  },
  "sigma_d_days": 90,
  "mew_days_used": 365,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 1.321576,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.45066,
  "activation_price": 68853.66,
  "dir_target_score": null,
  "candles_evaluated": 8375,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.153814,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 4,
  "trigger_candle_index": 0,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 4,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 4
}