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Passport #142405 · Jun 29, 2026 · 17:47 UTC · scored as of Oct 6, 2026 · 14:32 UTC
bitcoin:native
Nice weekly bullish SFP here on Bitcoin, holding the lows for now.
Looking like some relief is coming, if we clear $63.2k I could see this bounce towards the $70,000s.
Ultimately I think this ends in a lower high before new lows as I don't believe the bottom is in yet.
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 21 days · Medium Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
The directional claim is the bearish 'new lows' call — author believes bottom is not in. No specific numeric target given for the new lows, so targets are null. 'I think' and 'I don't believe' = mild_hedge. The $63.2k and $70,000s numbers belong to the conditional bounce leg, not this directional claim.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC makes new lows (bottom not in yet). No explicit horizon attached to this directional call. No bounce/urgency/macro signal fires for this leg → DEFAULT 30.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $60,414 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 21 days · Medium Term |
Scoring
0.37composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.80 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.33 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.12 |
| Magnitude | 0.80 |
| Max Favorable Move | +4.3% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −8.7% |
| Candles evaluated | 2016 · 12h |
| Eval window | Jun 29, 2026 · 17:47 UTC → Jul 20, 2026 · 17:47 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 21 |
| Duration used in scoring | 21 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3AA->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $60,414 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 5252.81,
"mfe": 2613.8,
"mqs": 0.795377,
"ocs": 0.332265,
"tif": 0.116279,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.232387,
"sigma_d": 0.02381578,
"eval_end": "2026-07-20 17:47:07+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.795377,
"max_close": 65598.75,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-06-29 17:47:07+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": true,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 21,
"mew_days_used": 21,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.586586,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.369077,
"activation_price": 60413.99,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 2016,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.027269,
"scoring_candle_tf": "12h",
"tif_total_aggregated": 43,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 43,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 5,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 43
}