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Passport #140066 · Jun 24, 2026 · 17:18 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
RO@Roman_trading
Jun 24, 2026 · 17:18 UTC
The 4 year cycle has remained true for $BTC 's entire life.
If history repeats, the 52 Bear Market end date is October 5th 2026. That means we have 15 weeks of the bear market remaining.
My guess is maybe one more low or so, then back to up only for 151 weeks. https://t.co/kvkYzOYxZL
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | heavy_hedge |
| Duration | 14 days · Short Term |
| Trigger | — |
| Trigger Operator | — |
AI Reasoning
Per Stage 2, only the first leg is scored. Author says 'maybe one more low or so' indicating expectation of a further downward move — heavy hedge given 'my guess' and 'maybe'. No numeric target stated for the low.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC makes one more low. No explicit horizon is bound to the downward outcome. 'One more low' is a bottom-call / reversal framing → Signal B2 base 30, but 'one more low' with '15 weeks of bear market remaining' and urgency of being near the end suggests the low is imminent → ↓ to 14.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $59,686 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 14 days · Short Term |
Scoring
0.27composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.47 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.27 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.14 |
| Magnitude | 0.47 |
| Max Favorable Move | +3.2% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −8.4% |
| Candles evaluated | 1344 · 8h |
| Eval window | Jun 24, 2026 · 17:18 UTC → Jul 8, 2026 · 17:18 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | ai_inferred |
| Duration stated (days) | 14 |
| Duration used in scoring | 14 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | heavy_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $59,686 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 5013.99,
"mfe": 1885.82,
"mqs": 0.470387,
"ocs": 0.273315,
"tif": 0.139535,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.20861,
"sigma_d": 0.01975574,
"eval_end": "2026-07-08 17:18:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.470387,
"max_close": 64489.98,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-06-24 17:18:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": true,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 14,
"mew_days_used": 14,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.635608,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.272962,
"activation_price": 59686.01,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 1344,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.049709,
"scoring_candle_tf": "8h",
"tif_total_aggregated": 43,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 43,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 6,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 43
} 