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Passport #164580 · Jul 24, 2026 · 11:00 UTC · scored as of Aug 12, 2026 · 20:33 UTC

@RektCapital

Jul 24, 2026 · 11:00 UTC

#BTC Bitcoin will likely Monthly Close below the 50-Month EMA if Bitcoin: - Continues to fail to reclaim the February/March lows (blue) as support - Keeps experiencing declining buy-side volume $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/tEpDiX2iGr

🤖Ask the AI Analyst about this call →@RektCapital's BTC record, on demand — every answer traceable to scored posts

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Conditional
Activation	Active at Trigger

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Commitment	mild_hedge
Duration	90 days · Long Term
Trigger	$65,722
Trigger Operator	Break Below

AI Reasoning

Trigger conditions (fail to reclaim Feb/March lows, declining buy-side volume) are not stated as explicit numeric levels, so trigger is null. Direction is down (monthly close below 50-Month EMA). No numeric target stated. 'Likely' indicates mild hedge.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC monthly closes below the 50-Month EMA. Per §0.5, 'Monthly Close' is part of the trigger/condition, not a horizon bound to the outcome. No explicit timeframe attached to the outcome; no bounce, bottom-call, urgency, or macro signal fires → DEFAULT 30.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

Gate 1: Chart shows BTC/USD on 1W timeframe. Gate 2: Asset matches Stage 3 (BTC). Gate 3: A horizontal line is visible around 64,988-65,722 zone marking the Feb/March lows referenced in the post - this qualifies as a trigger structure. Gate 4: Direction (down) is consistent with a 'fail to reclaim / lose below' scenario at this level. Trigger recovered at ~64,988 from the horizontal line drawn on the chart.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Activation	Active at Trigger
Activation price	$63,984
Target	—
Duration	90 days · Long Term
Trigger level	$65,722
Trigger operator	Break Below
Conditional operator	Category B — Break/Dump/Lose/Close Below
Trigger hit	Yes
Trigger time	Jul 30, 2026 · 00:00 UTC

Scoring

This call is conditional live — no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration source	chart_timeframe
Duration stated (days)	90
Duration used in scoring	90

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3B->4B_modeA
Merge source	merged
Direction source	post_text
Target source	none
Commitment level	mild_hedge
Spot price at post	$64,949
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

gate_3_confidence: chart_trigger_confidence

Merge Flags

trigger_from_chart: true

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 1425.28,
  "mfe": 1709.28,
  "mqs": 0.534214,
  "ocs": 0.545301,
  "tif": 0,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-08-01 18:45:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.070484,
  "sigma_d": 0.02096576,
  "eval_end": "2026-08-06 19:30:00+00:00",
  "end_close": 64443.99,
  "magnitude": 0.534214,
  "max_close": 65189.32,
  "min_close": 62340.01,
  "eval_start": "2026-07-30 00:00:00+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": 63984.28,
  "trigger_ts": "2026-07-30 00:00:00+00:00",
  "active_mode": false,
  "score_final": false,
  "trigger_hit": true,
  "end_close_ts": "2026-08-06 19:30:00+00:00",
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 90,
  "mew_days_used": 90,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 0.764028,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.2875,
  "activation_price": 63984.28,
  "dir_target_score": null,
  "candles_evaluated": 751,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.034965,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "1w",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 3,
  "trigger_candle_index": 0,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 3,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 3
}