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Passport #66976 · Mar 27, 2026 · 14:37 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC
MA@Macnbtc
Mar 27, 2026 · 14:37 UTC
$BTC looks very nasty I'm ngl, green box next unless Trump pushes some bullish propaganda this weekend https://t.co/AGofwx3J1W
Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction
Stage 2 · Type Classification
| Type | Conditional |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 90 days · Long Term |
| Trigger | $65,000 |
| Trigger Operator | Break Below |
AI Reasoning
Bearish conditional referencing a 'green box' chart level as the target destination, conditional on no bullish Trump news. No numeric trigger or target stated — the green box is chart-referenced not numeric. Single claim with bearish bias.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC drops to the 'green box' level. No outcome-anchored horizon phrase; 'this weekend' is attached to the trigger condition (Trump bullish propaganda), not the outcome. The conditional framing with a near-term weekend trigger implies urgency around the move → Signal C base 14, but the short-term nature with no indication of direction beyond the immediate drop and the weekend-scoped trigger pushes ↓ to 7.
Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction
Gate 1 passed: BTC/USD on 1W timeframe. Gate 2 passed: asset matches Stage 3 BTC. Gate 3 passed: horizontal line at ~65k and a green/highlighted box at ~58-60k indicate a break-below conditional structure. Gate 4 passed: structure is consistent with down direction. Trigger extracted as the horizontal support line at ~65,000 where price must break below to dump into the box, but confidence is NOT PASS due to ambiguity with the box edge as an alternative trigger interpretation.
Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active at Trigger |
| Activation price | $64,143 |
| Target | — |
| Duration | 90 days · Long Term |
| Trigger level | $65,000 |
| Trigger operator | Break Below |
| Conditional operator | Category B — Break/Dump/Lose/Close Below |
| Trigger hit | Yes |
| Trigger time | Jun 4, 2026 · 00:00 UTC |
Scoring
0.52composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.49 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.67 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.67 |
| Magnitude | 0.49 |
| Max Favorable Move | +9.9% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | −4.9% |
| Candles evaluated | 2807 · 1w |
| Eval window | Jun 4, 2026 · 00:00 UTC → Jul 3, 2026 · 05:30 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 90 |
| Duration used in scoring | 90 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3B->4B_modeA |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | none |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $65,901 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
gate_3_confidence: chart_trigger_confidence
Merge Flags
trigger_from_chart: true
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 3149.4,
"mfe": 6342.56,
"mqs": 0.48853,
"ocs": 0.668203,
"tif": 0.666667,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.255539,
"sigma_d": 0.02835564,
"eval_end": "2026-07-03 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.48853,
"max_close": 67292.14,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-06-04 00:00:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": 64142.75,
"trigger_ts": "2026-06-04 00:00:00+00:00",
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": true,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 90,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.670467,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.519735,
"activation_price": 64142.75,
"dir_target_score": null,
"candles_evaluated": 2807,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.147482,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1w",
"tif_total_aggregated": 6,
"trigger_candle_index": 9,
"aggregated_candles_count": 6,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 4,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 6
} 