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Call Audit
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Passport #77945 ยท May 3, 2026 ยท 00:13 UTC ยท scored as of Aug 12, 2026 ยท 20:33 UTC
This is where I think $BTC currently is.
Like in March 2022, it could break above the bull market support band, create a huge bull trap, make many hop in big, and then dump on their heads in disbelief.
So Iโm still observing.
Although I am tempted to grab some alts that could make a decent % upside on that potential breakout.
Concerning $BTC, 40k is still my target for the cycle bottom.
Stage 1 ยท Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 ยท Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 ยท Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 90 days ยท Long Term |
| Trigger | โ |
| Trigger Operator | โ |
AI Reasoning
Forecaster explicitly states 40k is their target for the cycle bottom, indicating a bearish call with a clear downside target. Language is somewhat hedged with the bull trap scenario described as possible ('could break above'), but the 40k target is stated firmly as 'still my target' โ leaning mild_hedge overall.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC drops to $40K as the cycle bottom. No outcome-anchored horizon phrase. 'Cycle bottom' is earnest macro language (cycle framing) โ Signal H base 120.
Stage 4 ยท Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 ยท Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $78,573 |
| Target | $40,000 โ $40,000 |
| Duration | 90 days ยท Long Term |
Scoring
0.75composite Call Rank Score
| Move Score (MQS) | 0.71 |
| Path Score (OCS) | 0.83 |
| Time Score (TIF) | 0.86 |
| Magnitude | 0.71 |
| Max Favorable Move | +26.4% |
| Max Unfavorable Move | โ5.4% |
| Candles evaluated | 8640 ยท 1w |
| Eval window | May 3, 2026 ยท 00:13 UTC โ Aug 1, 2026 ยท 00:13 UTC |
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | chart_timeframe |
| Duration stated (days) | 90 |
| Duration used in scoring | 90 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | post_text |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $78,573 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved โ no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 4276.88,
"mfe": 20772.93,
"mqs": 0.709888,
"ocs": 0.829265,
"tif": 0.857143,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.603548,
"sigma_d": 0.02780339,
"eval_end": "2026-08-01 00:13:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.709888,
"max_close": 82684.01,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-05-03 00:13:00+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"score_final": true,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 89,
"mew_days_used": 90,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 1.23749,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.749961,
"activation_price": 78573.12,
"dir_target_score": 0.528952,
"candles_evaluated": 8640,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.21364,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1w",
"tif_total_aggregated": 14,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 14,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 12,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 14
}