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Passport #136959 · Jun 12, 2026 · 10:34 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC

@LongtermR

Jun 12, 2026 · 10:34 UTC

Concerning $BTC , I still think the final bottom will be in area around 40-50k. That is a Fib retracement box, where it usually bottomed in the past. Also, my personal indicator didn't create a green dot buy signal yet, as you can see on the monthly chart bellow. Probably it will during the summer. True that some alts could make 2x in the meantime, and then retrace 50%. So at BTC's true bottom they could still be at a higher level than today. So it just depends on the game you're playing. Summer is usually slow for crypto, so I doubt we will see some some huge moves. You might simply enjoy the summer with your family and when you get back, you won't be late, believe me. Altogether, we are closer to the bottom in crypto than many think 🤝

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Commitment	mild_hedge
Duration	180 days · Long Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Forecaster states 'final bottom will be in area around 40-50k' — clear down call with explicit target range. 'I still think' qualifies it as mild_hedge. Fib retracement box mention is supporting context, not a separate target.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC drops to 40-50k final bottom. 'Probably it will during the summer' is bound to the indicator signal, not directly to the outcome price target, so no clean outcome-anchored explicit horizon. The bottom-call language ('final bottom') routes to Signal B2; 'summer' and 'closer to the bottom' suggest a medium-term horizon with no urgency cues, and the monthly chart / cycle framing pushes toward the upper band → B2 ↑ to 60.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$63,684
Target	$40,000 – $50,000
Duration	180 days · Long Term

Scoring

This call is directional live — no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration source	chart_timeframe
Duration stated (days)	180
Duration used in scoring	180

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A->4A
Merge source	merged
Direction source	post_text
Target source	post_text
Commitment level	mild_hedge
Spot price at post	$63,684
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 3608.15,
  "mfe": 5883.81,
  "mqs": 0.6254,
  "ocs": 0.619873,
  "tif": 1,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.170962,
  "sigma_d": 0.02181088,
  "eval_end": "2026-07-04 05:30:00+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.6254,
  "max_close": 67292.14,
  "min_close": 58169.81,
  "eval_start": "2026-06-12 10:34:35+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 90,
  "mew_days_used": 180,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 0.981896,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.604059,
  "activation_price": 63684,
  "dir_target_score": 0.402966,
  "candles_evaluated": 2092,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.094094,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 1,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 1,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 1,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}