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Passport #121525 ยท Jun 19, 2026 ยท 09:21 UTC ยท scored as of Oct 6, 2026 ยท 14:32 UTC
Real question: Where is the bottom on $BTC ?
During the last few cycles, yearly price always retested SMA9.
So no need for overanalyzing.
That would put Bitcoin bottom to around 40-50k.
But then they will say that $BTC is dead.
So the real question is: Will you buy it then? https://t.co/LfiYQCrWcC
Stage 1 ยท Text-Only Asset Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
Stage 2 ยท Type Classification
| Type | Directional |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
Stage 3 ยท Text-Only Extraction
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Commitment | mild_hedge |
| Duration | 365 days ยท Long Term |
| Trigger | โ |
| Trigger Operator | โ |
AI Reasoning
Forecaster predicts BTC bottom at 40-50k based on SMA9 retest pattern from prior cycles. Direction is down (bottom = lower price). 'That would put' is a soft projection = mild_hedge. Range extracted as 40000-50000.
Duration reasoning
Outcome = BTC bottoms around 40-50k. No explicit horizon phrase bound to the outcome. The post references multi-cycle SMA9 retest patterns with macro/cycle framing ('last few cycles', 'yearly price'), which is earnest macro register โ Signal H base 120.
Stage 4 ยท Chart-Only Extraction
No chart analysis for this call.
Stage 5 ยท Final Merged Passport
| Asset | BTC |
| Direction | Short |
| Activation | Active Immediately |
| Activation price | $62,382 |
| Target | $40,000 โ $50,000 |
| Duration | 365 days ยท Long Term |
Scoring
This call is directional live โ no final score yet.
Duration Resolution
| Duration source | reviewer_override |
| Duration stated (days) | 365 |
| Duration used in scoring | 365 |
Pipeline
| Pipeline path | 3A->4A |
| Merge source | merged |
| Direction source | post_text |
| Target source | post_text |
| Commitment level | mild_hedge |
| Spot price at post | $62,382 |
| Stage 0 passed | Yes |
Review Provenance
Auto-approved โ no review gates triggered.
Raw scoring math
score_json
{
"mae": 3240.83,
"mfe": 4581.81,
"mqs": 0.630912,
"ocs": 0.585711,
"tif": 0,
"mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
"abs_mag": 0.096091,
"sigma_d": 0.021578,
"eval_end": "2026-07-05 05:30:00+00:00",
"magnitude": 0.630912,
"max_close": 65578,
"min_close": 58169.81,
"eval_start": "2026-06-19 09:21:12+00:00",
"trigger_p0": null,
"trigger_ts": null,
"active_mode": false,
"trigger_hit": null,
"review_flags": {},
"sigma_d_days": 90,
"mew_days_used": 365,
"mqs_raw_ratio": 0.99672,
"target_hit_ts": null,
"accuracy_score": 0.328179,
"activation_price": 62382,
"dir_target_score": 0.340187,
"candles_evaluated": 1521,
"expected_move_mqs": 0.073689,
"scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
"tif_total_aggregated": 1,
"trigger_candle_index": null,
"aggregated_candles_count": 1,
"tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
"candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}