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Passport #121525 · Jun 19, 2026 · 09:21 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC

@LongtermR

Jun 19, 2026 · 09:21 UTC

Real question: Where is the bottom on $BTC ? During the last few cycles, yearly price always retested SMA9. So no need for overanalyzing. That would put Bitcoin bottom to around 40-50k. But then they will say that $BTC is dead. So the real question is: Will you buy it then? https://t.co/LfiYQCrWcC

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Commitment	mild_hedge
Duration	365 days · Long Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Forecaster predicts BTC bottom at 40-50k based on SMA9 retest pattern from prior cycles. Direction is down (bottom = lower price). 'That would put' is a soft projection = mild_hedge. Range extracted as 40000-50000.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC bottoms around 40-50k. No explicit horizon phrase bound to the outcome. The post references multi-cycle SMA9 retest patterns with macro/cycle framing ('last few cycles', 'yearly price'), which is earnest macro register → Signal H base 120.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$62,382
Target	$40,000 – $50,000
Duration	365 days · Long Term

Scoring

This call is directional live — no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration source	reviewer_override
Duration stated (days)	365
Duration used in scoring	365

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A->4A
Merge source	merged
Direction source	post_text
Target source	post_text
Commitment level	mild_hedge
Spot price at post	$62,382
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 3240.83,
  "mfe": 4581.81,
  "mqs": 0.630912,
  "ocs": 0.585711,
  "tif": 0,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-07-01 01:15:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.096091,
  "sigma_d": 0.021578,
  "eval_end": "2026-07-05 05:30:00+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.630912,
  "max_close": 65578,
  "min_close": 58169.81,
  "eval_start": "2026-06-19 09:21:12+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 90,
  "mew_days_used": 365,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 0.99672,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.328179,
  "activation_price": 62382,
  "dir_target_score": 0.340187,
  "candles_evaluated": 1521,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.073689,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "1M",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 1,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 1,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 1
}