Call Audit

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Passport #145646 · Jul 6, 2026 · 13:08 UTC · scored as of Jul 15, 2026 · 14:03 UTC

@CryptoKaleo

Jul 6, 2026 · 13:08 UTC

Part of me thinks Saylor announcing Strategy’s Bitcoin sale kicks the can down the road *slightly*… aka maybe we don’t see a capitulation event in the market this week - But still believe 30s/40s for BTC are imminent. When there’s blood in the water, it’s only a matter of time before the market tries to hunt it down for more.

Stage 1 · Text-Only Asset Extraction

Asset

BTC

Stage 2 · Type Classification

Type	Directional
Activation	Active Immediately

Stage 3 · Text-Only Extraction

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Commitment	declarative
Duration	14 days · Short Term
Trigger	—
Trigger Operator	—

AI Reasoning

Clear bearish call - '30s/40s for BTC are imminent' indicates a decline to the $30,000-$49,999 range. 'Still believe' + 'imminent' reflects firm commitment despite the softening around timing. Capitulation language confirms down direction.

Duration reasoning

Outcome = BTC drops to $30k-$40k range. 'Imminent' is bound to the outcome (the directional down call), not a trigger — Signal C fires. No indication of a medium/long-term hold or trend reversal context that would push to 30, so base 14 holds.

Stage 4 · Chart-Only Extraction

No chart analysis for this call.

Stage 5 · Final Merged Passport

Asset	BTC
Direction	Short
Activation	Active Immediately
Activation price	$61,640
Target	$30,000 – $49,999
Duration	14 days · Short Term

Scoring

This call is directional live — no final score yet.

Duration Resolution

Duration source	ai_inferred
Duration stated (days)	14
Duration used in scoring	14

Pipeline

Pipeline path	3A
Merge source	post_only
Direction source	post_text
Target source	post_text
Commitment level	declarative
Spot price at post	$61,640
Stage 0 passed	Yes

Review Provenance

Auto-approved — no review gates triggered.

Raw scoring math

score_json

{
  "mae": 3059.98,
  "mfe": 333.18,
  "mqs": 0.353253,
  "ocs": 0.098192,
  "tif": 0,
  "mfe_ts": "2026-07-06 13:45:00+00:00",
  "abs_mag": 0.036204,
  "sigma_d": 0.02480612,
  "eval_end": "2026-07-07 05:30:00+00:00",
  "magnitude": 0.353253,
  "max_close": 64489.98,
  "min_close": 61456,
  "eval_start": "2026-07-06 13:08:48+00:00",
  "trigger_p0": null,
  "trigger_ts": null,
  "active_mode": false,
  "trigger_hit": null,
  "review_flags": {},
  "sigma_d_days": 14,
  "mew_days_used": 14,
  "mqs_raw_ratio": 0.4358,
  "target_hit_ts": null,
  "accuracy_score": 0.121912,
  "activation_price": 61640.02,
  "dir_target_score": 0.015808,
  "candles_evaluated": 66,
  "expected_move_mqs": 0.012403,
  "scoring_candle_tf": "8h",
  "tif_total_aggregated": 3,
  "trigger_candle_index": null,
  "aggregated_candles_count": 3,
  "tif_favorable_aggregated": 0,
  "candles_evaluated_aggregated": 3
}